US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Fixed Income Focus: Very Busy Week Ahead...Q2 Mortgage Financial Accounts
The Treasury bill curve was steeper this past week following the FOMC outcome, and ahead of quarter-end and the looming deadline for money-market reforms, but the coupon curve was flatter as bonds led a strong rally following the FOMC and Bank of Japan decisions, supported by expectations that central bank assistance for asset prices overall will continue.
The latest financial accounts report from the Fed showed that residential mortgage debt increased $60.0 billion in the second quarter, the largest increase since the first quarter of 2008. Government agencies continue to finance most residential mortgage debt, but banks are holding more mortgages on their balance sheets, and bank holdings of agency debt/MBS reached another record level in the second quarter. Also, money market mutual funds' holdings of agency securities jumped $105.2 billion in the second quarter, the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Fixed Income Focus
Oxford Economics Weekly Research Highlights
As part of our partnership with Oxford Economics, we are now sharing Oxford Economics’ Weekly Research Highlights. It includes their top research pieces from the past week and a list of other research they published. Click here to view the Weekly Research Highlights from last week
Weekly Research Highlights
Oxford Economics/SMRA Podcast
Earlier today Greg Daco, Kathy Bostjancic (from Oxford Economics), and Rubeela Farooqi participated in a Oxford Economics/SMRA Podcast regarding the outlook for the US economy. Listen to the Podcast here
Yellen in Brief - Why Not Rather than Why?
* Yellen seemed to be presenting the arguments as to why the FOMC did not hike rates rather than why it was on hold for now.
* Monetary policy characterized as "modestly accommodative", perhaps reflecting downgrade in longer-run fed funds rate.
* FOMC does not suffer from "groupthink".
* Emphatically rejected that the FOMC is political in its decision-making.