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Trading Today - Markit PMIs ... Williams, George, & Kaplan
We will hear from the first Fed speakers other than Fed Chair Yellen today as the blackout period surrounding the FOMC meeting is lifted. Fed Presidents Williams and George will speak in the morning, and Fed President Kaplan will speak in the afternoon. The September Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI figures will also be released in the morning.
Sep  22  
Trading Today

Policy Update: Health Care Deja Vu & Tax Reform Renouveau
A last-ditch GOP effort to repeal the ACA has gained traction. The next days will determine whether this effort has the backing of former repeal opponents. Meanwhile, the outline of a tax cut plan is due next week. We look for a less regressive proposal on the individual front, focus on the tax rate on the corporate front and more tolerance for an increase in the deficit. We believe the odds of Congress passing a package this year are around 60%.
Sep  21  
Commentaries

Fed Take: Voting with Four -- or Three -- Governors
In her press briefing on Wednesday, Chair Yellen was asked about having only three Governors on the Federal Reserve Board when Vice Chair Fischer leaves if Randal Quarles is not yet seated as Governor and Vice Chair of Supervision. At present, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has vacancies for three of its seven seats. The impending departure of Vice Chair Stanley Fischer in mid-October could leave an already undermanned Board in even leaner condition. However, the Federal Reserve Act takes into account the possibility that the Board could have fewer than five Governors.
Sep  20  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Treasuries Hammered, Weighing On Auction Demand
An unwinding of safe-haven trades, hawkish central banks, supply pressures, and technical selling combined to hit Treasuries hard this week, reversing last week's gains. As of mid-Friday afternoon, the 2-year yield was more than 11 basis points higher on the week, the 5-year yield more than 16 basis points higher, the 10-year more than 14 basis points higher, and the 30-year yield was more than 10 basis points higher. Those were the largest weekly yield increases out through the 5-year since the week ended March 3rd, although the long-end held in slightly better as the 5-year/30-year spread flattened by the most since the week ended June 23.

The 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury coupon auction cycle met with weak demand for all three auctions this past week. The auctions didn't encounter any serious difficulty, but relative to recent history the bids were very light and wide of the market. The Indirect bid, which has closely tracked the strength of investment fund demand, reflected a surprisingly large decline, raising questions about investment fund demand for the month-end 2-year, -5-year, and 7-year auction cycle.
Sep  15  
Trading Today

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Sep  15  


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
10:29Fed Take: San Francisco's Williams - Could Raise FFR Again in 2017
09:49Equity Market Technicals
08:30Repo Update - 2-Year Tightens
08:30Corporate Review - Spreads Steady At Recent Lows
07:55Fed’s SOMA Average Maturity and Duration (wk 9/20)
07:26Trading Today - Markit PMIs ... Williams, George, & Kaplan
05:52Fed Week for September 25: Look Who's Talking
05:35Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - SOMA Assets Up $7.3 Bln in Sept 20 Week
21 SepWeekly Dealer Data: Little Change Overall
21 SepTreasury Market Summary for Thursday, September 21


Friday, 22 Sep
Fed's Williams speaks in Zurich
  Fed's George speaks at oil conference
  Markit US Manufacturing PMI  pSep   DUE Vs Prev's 52.8
  Markit US Services PMI  pSep   DUE Vs Prev's 56.0
  Fed's Kaplan speaks at oil conference