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Fixed Income Focus: Still Range-Bound...2-Year Note Auction Review/Preview
Treasuries wound up very little changed this past week. Despite large swings during the week, most yields across the coupon curve were less than a basis point higher as of early Friday afternoon, while 5-year and 30-year yields were less than 2 basis points higher.

Treasury will hold a $26.0 billion 2-year note auction on Tuesday afternoon. The bidding deadline will be 1:00 P.M. Two-year note auctions have stopped through their respective 1:00 PM bid sides by an average of 0.3 basis points over the past year, but by an average of 0.2 basis points over the past six months. The 2-year note auctions had an average bid/cover of 2.69 over the past year, and a somewhat smaller average bid/cover of 2.64 over the past six months.
Feb  17  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Feb  17  

The Debt Limit Clock Starts Ticking on March 16
Key Takeaways:
The current suspension of the debt limit expires after March 15. Assuming no quick action on a debt limit hike or another suspension, Treasury will begin to employ extraordinary measures.
--We currently estimate these measures will allow Treasury pay bills until sometime in September. However, we note that despite a Republican majority in Congress, the slow budgetary process, delays in repealing/replacing Obamacare, and a lack of internal consensus could spell trouble.
Feb  17  

Analysis - Yellen's Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony
On Tuesday, February 14, Chair Janet Yellen delivered the first part of her semiannual monetary policy testimony. The tone of the assessment of the economy suggested a slightly more hawkish outlook for rates, but one that was still consistent with only gradual removal of policy accommodation. Please click the link to read the PDF of the joint SMRA/Oxford Economics analysis: February 14 Viewpoint.
Feb  14  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Mixed Auctions...Yellen's Semi-Annual Testimony On Tap
The front-end of the curve was little changed this week, but the curve was flatter as bonds led gains further out the curve.

The auction results were mixed, and included a strong 3-year note auction, a weak 10-year note auction, and a modestly good 30-year bond auction. Please see this week's commentary for full details and analysis.
Feb  10  
Fixed Income Focus

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
17 FebTreasury Market Summary for Friday, February 17
17 FebIntermarket Outlook: Risk Leadership Fades, Deflationary Correction Continues
17 FebFixed Income Focus: Still Range-Bound...2-Year Note Auction Review/Preview
17 FebEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - February 20 to February 24
17 FebEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - February 13 to February 17
17 FebAnalysis--QSS Data Implications for Q4 GDP Revision
17 FebU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
17 FebAnalysis--Leading Economic Index was up 0.6% in January
17 FebThe Debt Limit Clock Starts Ticking on March 16

Chart of the Day
Rates Slump in the Absence of a Commodity Catalyst
Rates Slump in the Absence of a Commodity Catalyst

Monday, 20 Feb