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FOMC Statement from July 29: Job Gains Solid, Looking for Further Improvement
Key Take-Aways:
1. Economic activity still expanding moderately; job gains "solid".
2. Labor market slack "diminished since early this year".
3. Moderate growth in household spending, housing shown more improvement, business fixed investment and exports "stayed soft". 4. Inflation still below objective due to earlier drops in energy and continuing declines in non-energy imports.
5. Small change to forward guidance suggested labor market close to conditions the FOMC would find appropriate for an incremental removal of accommodation.
Jul  29  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Month-End Auction Preview...FOMC Meeting On Tap
The strong curve flattening trend begun on the 15th continued this past week. Bonds led a strong rally out the curve on falling equities and commodities, while front-end yields were narrowly mixed on the week.

Treasury will come to market during the upcoming week with a $90.0 billion package of month-end 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, which will raise a combined $16.786 billion when they settle next Friday, July 31st.
Jul  24  

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul  24  

What Did We Learn From The June State Payroll Data?
We continue to look closely at the state payroll data to better understand the national employment data. Our study of the June state payroll data suggests record or near record precipitation in a number of states, combined with an extraordinary heat wave in the western states inhibited June payroll growth. Against this backdrop we suspect that more seasonal climatic conditions in July will likely result in improved July payroll performance, with July payrolls surpassing the +223,000 of June.
Jul  21  
Previews/Reviews

Fed Monetary Policy Survey - Sept. Still Favored, But Dec. Rising
SMRA surveyed our readers about the outlook for monetary policy with five brief questions. The survey took place during the period of Monday, July 13 through Friday, July 17. Our survey is in advance of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. We repeated the first three questions from prior surveys to see how opinions have developed. From the results, it is clear that while most expectations are still concentrated for the start of policy normalization in September, it is less certain than it was and that December is rising as a more probable time at which the FOMC will act. However, overall, a strong majority of our respondents look to later this year for first increase in the fed funds target rate range since December 2008.
Jul  21  
Federal Reserve


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:17Treasury Market Summary For Wednesday, July 29
16:08Trading Tomorrow - GDP, Claims, 7-Year Note Sale
15:43Treasury Market Technicals: What’s Next After 10Yr Satisfies Corrective Move?
14:22FOMC Stmt from July 29: Job Gains Solid, Looking for Further Improvement
14:04FOMC Statement Editorial Changes
13:355-Year Bidding Details: Strong Buyside Takedown
13:125-Yr Note Auction Results: Buyside Strong Again
12:44Portfolio Survey: A Hair Less Defensive Ahead of FOMC
11:442-Year FRN Bidding Details ... Strong Indirects Continue
11:332-Year FRN Auction Results ... Solid


Chart of the Day
What is the FOMC Watching?<br>Financial Developments
What is the FOMC Watching?
Financial Developments

Wednesday, 29 Jul
MBA Mortgage Applications  24-Jul  +0.8% Vs Prev's +0.1%
  Pending Home Sales MoM  Jun  -1.8% Vs Prev's +0.6%
  Treasury will hold a 2-year FRN auction
  Treasury will hold a 5-year note auction
  FOMC Rate Decision
  Fannie Mae will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions