US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Trump’s Skinny Budget: Nothing More than A Wish List
--President Trump released a budget blueprint that is little more than a wish list. Most of what he has proposed will never be enacted.
--Congress does need to pass legislation funding discretionary programs to avoid a government shutdown. The first risk of a shutdown comes next month.
Viewpoint for March 14-15 FOMC Meeting Statement and SEP
On Wednesday, March 15, the FOMC released the statement from its two days of deliberations accompanied by an update to its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The FOMC opted to raise the fed funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 0.75%-1.00%. The SEP indicated that the FOMC's collective forecasts were only narrowly more hawkish and the outlook for monetary policy was little changed from the December SEP. Please click here to read the PDF of the joint SMRA/Oxford Economics full analysis.
Household Net Worth at Record Levels in Q4:16
--Household net worth increased $2.0 trillion to a record $92.8 trillion in the fourth quarter. The increase reflected gains in financial and real estate assets, offset slightly by a small increase in liabilities.
--Since 2009, household net worth has increased $38.0 trillion, with increases in financial assets accounting for 80% of the gain. Liability growth has been driven by student loans and car loans. Growth in mortgage debt and credit card debt has been more sluggish.
--Gains in net worth aren't spread evenly among households. Changes in disposable income are a more reliable indicator of consumer spending.
February Employment Analysis
(1) February Payrolls +235,000
(2) December/January Payrolls revised upward by 9,000, private downward -31,000
(3) Unemployment Rate 4.7% down from 4.8%
(4) Earnings/Hours/Aggregate Payrolls solid, AHE +0.2% (2.8% yoy)
(5) Overall February very strong, lifted by weather Construction +58,000