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Fixed Income Focus: Treasuries Steady...Refunding Announcement Preview
Treasury yields were lower this past week, reversing a small portion of the April selloff. From April 7th through April 26th, the 2-year yield had jumped 19 basis points, the 5-year yield surged 27 basis points, the 10-year yield was 26 basis points higher from the early April low, and the 30-year yield rose as much as 25 basis points. Relative to that selloff, the improvement this past week was small, with 2-year yields down less than 4 basis points on the week as of early Friday afternoon, the 5-year yield down a little less than 6 basis points, the 10-year yield close to 5 basis points lower, and bond yields very near unchanged on the week.

Treasury will announce borrowing projections for the next two quarters and details of the May refunding next week. We've estimated second quarter borrowing needs of -$64.7 billion, compared to our preliminary estimate of -$127.7 billion. We look for Treasury to keep coupon auction sizes stable, although there is some risk for further cuts. We also look for Treasury to update the markets on whether it plans to sell 2-month bills.
Apr  29  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Apr  29  

FOMC Statement from April 27: Growth Slowed, Balance of Risks Not Stated
Key Take-Aways:
1. The April 27 statement downgraded economic activity, said it "slowed", but labor market conditions "improved further" and inflation still expected to rise toward 2% over the medium term.
2. Removed language that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks".
3. Kansas City Fed's Esther George dissented in favor of a rate hike.
Apr  27  
Federal Reserve

Fed Monetary Policy Survey - April, No; June, Likely
The results of the SMRA survey for the outlook for monetary policy are now available. Overall, survey respondents have focused on the June 14-15 FOMC meeting as the most likely for removing another increment of accommodation in monetary policy. To see the April survey or the prior ones, click here.
Apr  18  
Federal Reserve

TIC Focus: Once Again, Transactions and Holdings Data Diverge
Key Takeaways:
--Foreign investors were buyers of $9.9 billion of Treasury notes and bonds in February.
--Official investors were sellers of $48.3 billion of long-term Treasuries in February, while private investors bought $60.2 billion.
--The major buyers of Treasuries based on the transactions data included the United Kingdom and France. The major sellers included Hong Kong, Brazil and China.
--The TIC holdings data once again diverged from the transactions data. Based on the holdings data, foreign investors increased their holdings of notes and bonds by $56.1 billion in February.
--Changes in market value help explain some of the discrepancies between the transactions and holdings data, particularly for the largest investors.
Apr  15  
Commentaries


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
29 AprWEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY - WEEK OF APRIL 29, 2016
29 AprTreasury Market Summary For Friday, April 29
29 AprFixed Income Focus: Treasuries Steady...Refunding Announcement Preview
29 AprEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - May 2 to May 6
29 AprEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - April 25 to April 29
29 AprPreview of the Treasury's Financing and Refunding Announcements
29 AprU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
29 AprAnalysis - Final April Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index 89.0
29 AprData Flash! fApr U Mich Consumer Sentiment 89.0
29 AprAnalysis - April MNI-Chicago ISM Business Barometer 50.4


Chart of the Day
Direct Bidder Decline in Monday's Auctions
Direct Bidder Decline in Monday's Auctions

Monday, 2 May
Markit US Manufacturing PMI  fApr   DUE Vs Prev's 50.8
  ISM Manufacturing PMI  Apr  EST 51.0 Vs Prev's 51.8
  Construction Spending MoM  Mar  EST +0.2% Vs Prev's -0.5%
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Freddie Mac will announce reference bills