US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Fixed Income Focus: Back to Flattening; Tax Reform to Get Harder
The corrective steepening in the yield curve late last week quickly went out the window this week, as front-end yields continued to climb, resuming the curve flattening trend.
The GOP tax plan cleared a major hurdle this week with passage in the House, but tax reform only gets harder from here. It will be harder for the Senate, with its slim Republican majority, to pass a plan. The health care provisions in the plan could complicate things further.
Fixed Income Commentaries
Tax Reform Advances on Two Fronts
Two very different versions of tax reform advanced in the House and the Senate yesterday. Some differences - like a delay in cutting the corporate tax rate - aren't likely to derail tax legislation. Others, like repeal of state and local tax deductions, will be harder to resolve. This week's election results increase the urgency for Republicans to pass a package of tax cuts, and we still assign odds of about 60% to legislation being enacted.
Research Briefing - Fed Outlook 2018 - Voters rotate, Board is reshaped
Beyond a new Fed Chair, there is changing of the guard taking place among the voting members of the FOMC that likely tilts the committee moderately more hawkish. The turnover is happening at the Board of Governors and regional Fed Presidents. While this does not equate to a large change in the expected gradual pace of rate hikes, the rotation raises the possibility that the pace of hikes could be on the high end of what could be considered a gradual removal of policy accommodation.
Tax Reform: All I Want for Christmas...
The $1.5 trillion Tax Cuts and Jobs Act fleshes out the details of the Unified Framework released in September. It remains more generous to businesses than individuals, but is slightly less regressive than the initial proposal. Importantly, many components will be fined tuned in the coming weeks. Financial markets appeared somewhat incredulous to either passage of the plan through Congress, or a significant economic impact. We still attach odds around 60% to Congress passing a tax cut package this year or early in 2018. While the plan could boost growth significantly, it would do so only temporarily.