Stone & McCarthy Research Associates
 
UserName:       Password:          Forget Your Password?   Ask for A Complimentary Trial
US

Daily
  Press At a Glance
  Snapshots

Research/Analysis

Reference Libraries

 

the October Jolts Job Openings data and the latest NY Fed survey of consumer expectations will be released this morning. Treasury will also hold a 3-year auction this morning and a 10-year reopening auction this afternoon in addition to the bill auctions.
Dec  11  
Trading Today

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Dec  8  

Fixed Income Focus: 3-year & 10-year note auction previews
Treasury yields were less than 3 basis points higher for the week across the curve as of late Friday afternoon. The first half of the week was again dominated by curve flattening trades, but that began to reverse slightly during the latter part of the week, leaving the curve still flatter for the fourth week in a row, but only slightly.

Treasury debt managers will come to market with a $58.0 billion package of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auctions during the week ahead. They will hold a $24.0 billion 3-year note auction Monday morning, with an 11:30am bidding deadline, a $20.0 billion reopening of the 2 1/4% 10-year note Monday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline, and a $12.0 billion reopening of the 2 3/4% 30-year bond on Tuesday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline. This will be the first reopenings for the 10-year and 30-year bonds following the original issues auctions at last month's Refunding.
Dec  8  
Fixed Income Focus

Research Briefing - FOMC meeting preview -- rate hike ahead
We expect the FOMC to take another step in the slow climb back to normalizing monetary policy with a hike in the fed funds rate target range of 25 basis points to 1.25% - 1.50%. The majority of FOMC participants will continue to forecast that inflation will reach its 2% target in the medium-term. The recent uptick in core inflation readings, albeit modest, provides support to their forecasts. Most officials continue to expect that the tight labor market will lead to a moderate cyclical upswing in wages, which in turn will help bolster a pick-up in inflation.
Dec  7  
Federal Reserve

Home Stretch for Tax Reform as Shutdown Battles Loom
Republicans are closing in on their goal of passing a major tax cut. A conference to resolve differences between the House and Senate bills is the next step in the process. We expect a House-Senate compromise to emerge fairly quickly and for President Trump to sign legislation before the end of the year.
Later this week, Congress is expected to pass the first of what will probably be two short-term funding measures necessary to avoid a government shutdown. Unlike the tax bill, Democrats have more leverage in fiscal 2018 spending negotiations. We expect Democrats to demand concessions in exchange for their support.
Dec  5  
Commentaries


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
11 Dec4-Week Bill Auction History & Pre-Auction Talk
11 DecTreasury Market Technicals
11 DecTreasury Market Summary for Monday, December 11
11 DecTrading Tomorrow PPI in focus, along with budget data and 30Y auction
11 DecBuyside bidders show little interest in today's three month bill auction
11 DecTen-year dealer, indirect bidder interest slips
11 DecWeak figures in the three month bill so far
11 DecTen-year note auction tails, but buyside average
11 Dec(Correct) Strong indirect demand drives solid 3-year note auction
11 DecA relatively mediocre six-month bill auction


Chart of the Day
New SMRA Platform
New SMRA Platform

Tuesday, 12 Dec
NFIB Small Business Optimism  Nov   DUE Vs Prev's 103.8
  PPI Final Demand MoM  Nov   DUE Vs Prev's +0.4%
  PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM  Nov   DUE Vs Prev's +0.4%
  Treasury will hold a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 30-year bond auction
  Monthly Budget Statement  Nov  EST -$135.0B Vs Prev's -$63.2B
  FOMC Meeting Day 1