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Fixed Income Focus: Quiet Calendar ... The Budget Skirmishes Ahead
Treasury yields moved lower this past week, led by the intermediate sector. Yields took a step lower across the curve early in the week, but the directional movements were a little more mixed and dominated by curve steepening for most of the week before reversing on Friday.

Both the House and Senate have passed budget resolutions for fiscal 2016, but there are major differences that will need to be ironed out before moving forward, and both budgets are very different from what the President has proposed, so much of what is in the Congressional budgets won't survive even if a joint resolution is passed.
Apr  17  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Apr  17  

Bernanke's Thinking on the Normalization Process
Yesterday Ben Bernanke addressed the IMF's Rethinking Macro Policy III conference. His remarks entitled Monetary Policy in the Future were posted on his blog. Bernanke's remarks revealed a greater degree of confidence that the Fed will be able to raise interest rates when the time comes, than the apparent conviction of the FOMC. He sees the role of the RRP rate as more prominent than the fed funds rate, a notion that appears to be in contrast with the message of the FOMC, wherein the RRP program would serve as a supplemental tool, that would be phased out quickly.
Apr  16  
Federal Reserve Research

TIC Focus: Foreign Holdings of Treasuries Fall Sharply in February
Key Takeaways:
--Foreign investors were sellers of $6.3 billion Treasury notes and bonds in February, based on TIC transactions data.
--Once again, the TIC holdings data painted a vastly different picture. Based on the holdings data, foreign investors reduced their holdings of Treasuries by $76.4 billion.
--Based on the holdings data, foreign official investors were sellers of $49.5 billion notes and bonds in February.
--Japan surpassed China as the largest holder of Treasuries in February, but just barely.
--The decline in China's Treasury holdings over the last several months has tracked the decline in its foreign exchange reserves.
Apr  15  

Fixed Income Focus: Mid-Month Treasury Auction Wrap-Up
The belly of the curve led a rise in yields this past week, as supply pressures and curve flows weighed on prices.

Demand for the mid-month, 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year coupon auction cycle was disappointing despite a good 3-year auction. The combined bid/cover was the smallest since last November's Refunding, and the smallest for a non-Refunding cycle since June 2013, and before that since October 2009.
Apr  10  
Fixed Income Focus

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
17 AprTechnical Intermarket Outlook
17 AprTreasury Market Summary For Friday, April 17
17 AprFixed Income Focus: Quiet Calendar ... The Budget Skirmishes Ahead
17 AprFiscal Policy Focus: The Budget Skirmishes Ahead
17 AprEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - April 20 to April 24
17 AprEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - April 13 to April 17
17 AprAnalysis: Prelim. April U of Mich Cons Sent Index 95.9
17 AprU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
17 AprAnalysis--March Leading Economic Index

Chart of the Day
SMRA Fed Survey<br>Risks to Recovery Vs Risks to Stability
SMRA Fed Survey
Risks to Recovery Vs Risks to Stability

Monday, 20 Apr
Chicago Fed National Activity Index  Mar   DUE Vs Prev's -0.11
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Freddie Mac will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions