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December Payrolls in the 5 Largest States Were Weak
On Tuesday the BLS will release the December State employment data. We study these data to assess whether there was any unusual payroll behavior among the individual states that may be reverse in the following month. A number of the individual states release data for their state a day or two in advance of the full BLS release. We look at these individual state releases in advance of the BLS release for the largest states (California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois). Collectively these 5 states account for a little over 36% of national payrolls. Collectively these 5 states were very weak in December suffering a loss of 3,300 jobs.
Jan  23  
Economic Research

Fed Monetary Policy Survey - Less Uncertainty in Spite of Risks
SMRA surveyed our readers about the outlook for monetary policy with seven brief questions. The survey took place during the period of Tuesday, January 17 through Friday, January 20. Our survey suggested that uncertainty about the outlook has receded in many respects. This is not to say that the outlook does not have its uncertainties, but that survey respondents are in broad agreement about what these might be. Expectations have settled behind a series of gradual rate hikes of the sort that Fed officials have been projecting. The risks to the outlook are also lining up with ones mentioned by policymakers.
Jan  23  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Awaiting New Administration...ACA Repeal Hits Roadblocks
Treasury yields were mostly higher this past week as the curve steepened.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) repeal effort has encountered some obstacles, including a new CBO report, pushback from key Republican Senators, resistance from Republican governors, and some shift in public opinion about the ACA. President Trump's position on health care is also at odds with other Republicans, which could be a wild card. Any delay in repealing the ACA also complicates the process for enacting other fiscal measures, including broader individual and corporate tax cuts.
Jan  20  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jan  20  

Changes in the Fed's Reinvestment Policies--When?
The recent talk of changing the reinvestment policy in the not too distant future is not unreasonable. Earlier we were of the opinion that the FOMC would be patient in pulling the trigger on reinvestment policy. In other words, we were guessing that the Funds target might have a lower bound of 2% or so before a change would be announced, probably in 2018. We now think it could come sooner, probably sometime late in 2017.
Jan  19  
Federal Reserve Research


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
23 JanTreasury Market Technicals: 2.515% Holds, Extreme Bearishness Still on Display
23 JanTreasury Market Summary for Monday, January 23
23 JanTrading Tomorrow - Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed, 2-Yr Auction
23 JanDecember Payrolls in the 5 Largest States Were Weak
23 JanGlobal Perspective: Oil-Sensitive RTSI Lags, SPX on Wrong Post-Inauguration Path
23 Jan3 & 6-Month Bidding Details: Improved Buyside
23 JanPreview--December Leading Economic Index
23 Jan3 & 6-Month Bill Auction Results... Solid
23 JanTreasury Announces $45.0 billion 4-Week Bill Auction Details
23 Jan3 & 6 Month Bills Preview Auction Talk, History and Bidding Pools


Chart of the Day
Inauguration Jitters Lead to Positive N-T Returns
Inauguration Jitters Lead to Positive N-T Returns

Tuesday, 24 Jan
Markit US Manufacturing PMI  pJan   DUE Vs Prev's 54.3
  Existing Home Sales  Dec  EST 5.52M Vs Prev's 5.61M
  Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index  Jan   DUE Vs Prev's 8.0
  Treasury will hold a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 2-year note auction