SMRA-Oxford Economics 2018 calendars now available
Our 2018 calendars, showing key dates for economic releases, Federal Reserve events and fixed income auctions, have arrived.
Fixed Income Focus: Technical breakdown ahead of month-end supply
The 10-year note led a bear-steepening selloff this week, as a break above 2.60% and 2.64% lifted the yield to the highest since September 2014.
The 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Treasury auction sizes during the upcoming week are unchanged, but they are likely to increase next month. There was a surge in Indirect demand for the very well bid mid-month auction cycle, but Indirect demand has been waning at the month-end auctions, and there is unlikely to be a similar improvement for the month-end auctions.
Fixed Income Focus
Shutdown risk increases as deadline approaches
Congress hopes to pass its fourth stop-gap spending measure before the end of the week to prevent a government shutdown. The measure faces stiff opposition, mainly from conservatives in the House and Senate Democrats. The odds of a shutdown have increased to 50%. If a shutdown does occur, about 850,000 federal workers would be furloughed. A shutdown lasting a week would shave 0.1pp from GDP growth. Congress may avert a shutdown this weekend, but the stakes only get higher from here. Deadlines for DACA and the debt limit will bear down in early March.
Research Briefing - Fed in 2018 - Voters rotate while Board is reshaped
Changes at the top of the Fed have started to reshape the outlook for US monetary policy. The Board of Governors will soon have an almost entirely new lineup, and two District Banks recently gained new Presidents. The new Governors could swing more hawkish in their views of monetary policy and favor a roll back of some of the post-financial crisis regulation. Trump's nomination of Powell as Chair suggested that a sharp swing to the hawkish side of the spectrum might not be severe, but recent speculation about other nominations for Governors' seats may change that inference
US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.