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US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Nov  24  

Research Briefing - December hike likely, still uncertainty on inflation
On Wednesday, November 22, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the October 31-November 1 FOMC meeting. The minutes support a December rate hike, despite a high degree of uncertainty of whether the factors holding down inflation will be transitory or more permanent. This suggests a continued gradual pace of rate hikes next year.
Nov  22  
Federal Reserve

Fed 'Rules Regarding Delegation of Authority'
The announcement that Chair Janet Yellen will step down as a Governor when her successor as Chair is sworn in -- presumably Jerome Powell -- sets up a real possibility that the Board of Governors will have four of seven seats empty in the near future. This situation would be unique in our experience. The Board has not had a full complement since July 2013, but it has never had more than three vacancies at a time. At junctures where this was a real threat, the President and the Senate acted quickly to ensure there were candidates nominated and confirmed before that came to pass. In the present circumstances, the Federal Reserve is preparing for the possibility.
Nov  22  
Federal Reserve

Tax Reform Advances on Two Fronts
Two very different versions of tax reform advanced in the House and the Senate yesterday. Some differences - like a delay in cutting the corporate tax rate - aren't likely to derail tax legislation. Others, like repeal of state and local tax deductions, will be harder to resolve. This week's election results increase the urgency for Republicans to pass a package of tax cuts, and we still assign odds of about 60% to legislation being enacted.
Nov  10  
Commentaries

Research Briefing - Fed Outlook 2018 - Voters rotate, Board is reshaped
Beyond a new Fed Chair, there is changing of the guard taking place among the voting members of the FOMC that likely tilts the committee moderately more hawkish. The turnover is happening at the Board of Governors and regional Fed Presidents. While this does not equate to a large change in the expected gradual pace of rate hikes, the rotation raises the possibility that the pace of hikes could be on the high end of what could be considered a gradual removal of policy accommodation.
Nov  8  
Federal Reserve


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
14:50Treasury Market Summary for Friday, November 24
14:34Treasury Market Technicals
13:39Fixed Income Focus: Packed Calendar, Powell, Yellen Testimonies on Tap
12:44This Week’s Macro Musings
12:36Economic Week Ahead Chartbook: November 27 to December 1
12:29Economic Week in Review Chartbook: November 20 to November 24
12:12U.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
09:06Equity Market Technicals
08:41Repo Update - 5-Year Special, 7-Year and 10-Year Still Tight
08:18Corporate Review - Spreads Mixed, Issuance Takes a Holiday


Chart of the Day
New SMRA Platform
New SMRA Platform

Friday, 24 Nov
Markit US Manufacturing PMI  pNov  53.8 Vs Prev's 54.6
  Markit US Services PMI  pNov  54.7 Vs Prev's 55.3