FOMC Meeting Preview - Will ''Extended Period'' Become ''Some Time'' Again?
It was in the March 18, 2009 FOMC statement that the "extended period" language was introduced to offer assurance that the 0%-0.25% fed funds target range adopted in December of 2008 would be there to support the economy for a long time. This was one of the darkest periods of the recession, which has since given way to a vastly improved labor market and some modest growth. So, at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 16, will the FOMC move away from the "extended period" language in favor of some formulation that implies the time for extraordinarily low rates is getting shorter?
Mar 9
Federal Reserve Research
Budget Review for February: A Little Hope, A Lot of Quirks
The Treasury reported a budget deficit of $220.9 billion for February, compared to $193.9 billion in February of 2009. Individual income taxes looked stronger than they were because of quirky refund accounting. Still, there are signs of some underlying improvement on the revenue side. Meanwhile, spending for the fiscal year to-date was artificially subdued because of calendar quirks and less financial crisis-related spending.
Mar 10
Treasury Market
Inferences From January Job Openings And Labor Turnover Survey
Yesterday the BLS released the January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the so-called JOLTS data. These data provided a richer understanding of the monthly payroll data.
The January JOLTS data were generally upbeat, and suggest that labor market prospects have improved.
Mar 10
Economic Research
February Employment Analysis
Key "Take-Aways":
(1) February Payrolls Appeared Relatively Upbeat in Light of Weather
(2) Difficult to Quantify Storm Impact on Payrolls
(3) Leading Indicators of Payrolls Still Upbeat
(4) Generally Speaking, the February Data were Pretty Good
Mar 5
Previews/Reviews
Fixed Income Focus: Ultra Bond Activity; Fannie, Freddie Will Plod Ahead
Treasury Focus: The new Ultra T-Bond contract began trading on January 11. Although open interest and average activity levels pale in comparison to the classic bond contract, they have increased steadily, suggesting the new Utra bond contract has is finding a following.
Agency Focus: In this comment, we review Freddie Mac's and Fannie Mae's financial results for the fourth quarter. The GSEs will continue to plod ahead -- with significant Treasury support -- as they work through the piles of bad loans in their mortgage portfolios. The status quo will prevail until Congress replaces the current system of housing finance with a new model.
Mar 5
Fixed Income
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Thursday, 11 Mar
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Trade Balance
Jan
-$37.3B
Vs Prev's -$39.9Br
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Initial Claims
wk 03/06
462K
Vs Prev's 468Kr
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Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bills
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Fannie Mae will price 3-year notes
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Treasury will auction the reopening of 30-year bonds
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NY Fed Pres Dudley speaks at the Society of Business Economists annual dinner in London
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WBC-MI Inflation Expectations
Mar
3.2%
Vs Prev's 3.2%
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Unemployment Rate
Feb
5.3%
Vs Prev's 5.2%
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Employment
Feb
+0.4
Vs Prev's +56.5
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Participation Rate
Feb
65.2%
Vs Prev's 65.3%
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RBNZ OCR review
2.50%
Vs Prev's 2.50%
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NZ Food prices (MoM)
Feb
-1.3%
Vs Prev's 2.1%
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RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Q1
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GDP (QoQ rev)
0.9%
Vs Prev's 1.1%
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Bank of Korea Policy meeting
2.00%
Vs Prev's 2.00%
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Malaysian IP (YoY)
Jan
DUE Vs Prev's 8.9%
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Retail Sales (YoY%/YTD YoY%)
Feb
+22.1%/+17.9%
Vs Prev's +17.5%/+15.5%
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Industrial Output (YoY/YTD YoY)
Feb
+12.8%/+20.7%
Vs Prev's +18.5%/+11.0%
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Urban Fixed Asset Investment (YTD YoY%)
Jan-Feb
+26.6%
Vs Prev's +30.5%
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New Loans (bln yuan)
Feb
+700.1/+2090.1
Vs Prev's +1390/+1390
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Money Supply (M2) (YoY%)
Feb
+25.52%
Vs Prev's +25.98%
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CPI (YoY%/YTD YoY%)
Feb
+2.7%/+2.1%
Vs Prev's +1.5%/+1.5%
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PPI (YoY%/YTD YoY%)
Feb
+5.4%/+4.9%
Vs Prev's +4.3%/+4.3%
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EMU Current Account 1st Release (QoQ)
-27.0
Vs Prev's -27.7
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ECB publishes Monthly Report
Mar
DUE Vs Prev's n.a.
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ECB's Mersch speaks in Luxembourg
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BoE/GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes Svy (Yr Ahead Expectations %)
Feb
2.5
Vs Prev's 2.4
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DMO Gilt Auction (Stg900mln 1.25% 2032 IL Gilt)
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Final INSEE Non-Farm Payrolls (% QoQ)
-0.1
Vs Prev's -0.6
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Government Budget Deficit (EUR bln ytd)
Jan
-9.2
Vs Prev's -138.0
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Irish CPI (HICP %mom/yoy)
Feb
0.2/-2.4
Vs Prev's -0.7/-2.4
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Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
0.25%
Vs Prev's 0.25%
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CPI (%mom/yoy)
Feb
0.6/1.2
Vs Prev's -0.6/0.6
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UNDIX CPI (%mom/yoy)
Feb
0.6/2.7
Vs Prev's -0.2/2.6
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