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Trading Today - Claims, Philly Fed, Leading Index...5Y TIPS
The U.S. session kicks off with the Jobless Claims release, followed by the mid-morning Philly Fed Index and Leading Indicators. Treasury will hold a 5-year TIPS auction in the afternoon.
Dec  18  
Trading Today

Yellen in Brief - Change in Statement Language Appropriate Now
Key Take-Aways:
* Yellen said the time was appropriate to move away from "considerable time" forward guidance to "patient" approach.
* New language better reflects economic conditions, puts asset purchases in the rear view.
* Normalization unlikely to begin "for at least next couple of meetings".
Dec  17  
Federal Reserve

FOMC Statement from Dec. 17: 'Patient' Consistent with 'Considerable Time'
Key Take-Aways:
1. "Considerable time" consistent with the policy outlook, but supplanted by "patient" and not a signal of intent to raise rates sooner rather than later.
2. Overall assessment of economic conditions similar to prior statement.
3. Reinvestments to continue as before.
4. Three dissents in the vote for three different reasons.
Dec  17  
Federal Reserve

Household Balance Sheets: A Review of the Third Quarter Data
Key Takeaways:
--Household net worth declined slightly in the third quarter, according to the Fed's latest Z.1 report.
--The decline in net worth reflected a decline in the value of financial assets plus a small increase in household debt.
--Households' holdings of real estate assets increased for the eleventh consecutive quarter.
--Households' mortgage debt increased -- one of only two quarterly increases since 2008.
--The decline in household mortgage debt since 2008 has been due primarily to charge-offs.
Dec  17  
Economics

Trading Today - FOMC Decision Day! Plus, MBA, CPI, Current Account
The early morning MBA Mortgage Applications figures didn't get much of a market response, as is typical, but the November CPI and Q3 Current Account figures will kick off the session in the U.S. today. Players will quickly sort through the figures for any possible implications regarding this afternoon's FOMC decision, but barring a major surprise in the inflation figures in particular we expect the focus will remain on the ebbs and flows of the safe-haven activity during the morning. Positioning for the FOMC decision should take precedence during the afternoon, particularly following the close of European trading.
Dec  17  
Trading Today


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
08:20Corporate Review - Supply, Spreads, & Activity For Wednesday, Dec. 17
07:39Trading Today - Claims, Philly Fed, Leading Index...5Y TIPS
07:01Chart of the Day - December 17ís Three-Way Dissent
17 DecTreasury Market Summary For Wednesday, December 17
17 DecTrading Tomorrow - Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Leading Index...5Y TIPS
17 DecYellen in Brief - Change in Statement Language Appropriate Now
17 DecTreasury Market Technicals
17 DecFed's Survey of Economic and Funds Rate Projections-December 16/17
17 DecFOMC Statement from Dec. 17: 'Patient' Consistent with 'Considerable Time'
17 DecFOMC Statement Editorial Changes


Chart of the Day
December 17ís Three-Way Dissent
December 17ís Three-Way Dissent

Thursday, 18 Dec
Initial Jobless Claims  13-Dec  EST +292K Vs Prev's +294K
  Continuing Claims  6-Dec   DUE Vs Prev's 2514K
  Markit US Composite PMI  pDec   DUE Vs Prev's 56.1
  Markit US Services PMI  pDec   DUE Vs Prev's 56.2
  Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook  Dec  EST 25.0 Vs Prev's 40.8
  Leading Index  Nov  EST +0.6% Vs Prev's +0.9%
  Treasury will announce a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Treasury will announce a 2-year FRN reopening
  Treasury will announce 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year note auctions
  Treasury will hold a 5-year TIPS reopening
  Freddie Mac may announce reference notes