Stone & McCarthy Research Associates
UserName:       Password:          Forget Your Password?   Ask for A Complimentary Trial
  US Menu
  Treasury Market
  Other Markets
      Money Markets
  Federal Reserve
  Portfolio Surveys

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul  2  

Preview June Employment--Better than Recent Trend, Softer than May
In this Preview of June Employment we make the case for the June payroll data to be somewhat less upbeat than in May, but more upbeat than the prior 3-month average. We use the May state payroll data to show why June should be softer than May. We study the history of June payroll forecasts, and we address the prospects for the June Unemployment Rate.
Jun  29  

Fixed Income Focus: Payrolls On Tap During Holiday-Shortened Week
The 7-year to 10-year sector led Treasury yields sharply higher this past week. Yields were driven higher early in the week as players unwound safe-haven trades on the prospects of Greece working out a deal, remained under pressure through mid-week in response to supply and some better data, and sold off on Friday amid a lack of month-end/quarter-end or safe-haven interest.

This past week's coupon auctions were a little mixed, but ended on a good note with a strong 7-year auction. The overall combined demand for the three issues was light, but that was mostly the result of very limited Dealer interest. The Direct bid wasn't bad relative to the recent average though, and the size of the Indirect bid was actually quite strong.
Jun  26  
Fixed Income Focus

Household Balance Sheets: A Review of the First Quarter Data
Key Takeaways:
--Household net worth increased to a record $84.9 trillion in the first quarter.
--Gains in market value explained most of the increase in net worth, although net investment in financial assets was a record high.
--Households' real estate assets increased for the 15th consecutive quarter.
--After two quarters of growth, mortgage debt contracted again.
--In this update on household balance sheets, we focus on households' retirement assets, which account for about 40% of all financial assets. We also look at data from other reports on how those assets are distributed.
Jun  19  

Yellen in Brief - Data Point to Appropriate to Hike FFR Later This Year
In her post-meeting press briefing on June 17, Chair Janet Yellen delivered a reassuring message about the outlook for monetary policy. Having largely overcome the softer economic data in the first quarter, the labor market continued to improve, and inflation stabilized. The FOMC's collective forecast pointed to firmer expectations of a hike in the fed funds rate target later in 2015. However, Yellen cautioned against putting too much attention on the timing of the first increase in the fed funds rate since the 0%-0.25% target was set in December 2008. Yellen said, "What should matter is the entire trajectory" and that policy decisions will "have to evolve in light of what happens in the economy". She said, "The appropriate policy decision is going to be data-dependent," and "our opinions are likely to shift as we look at how the data evolves."
Jun  17  
Federal Reserve

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
02 JulWeekly Dealer Data: Bounce In Treasuries Despite Looming Quarter End
02 JulTreasury Market Summary For Thursday, July 2
02 JulTreasury Market Technicals: Steepening Gains Steam as Yields Remain Rangy
02 JulTreasuries Holding Gains On Weaker Data, Weekend Greek Referendum
02 JulEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - July 6 to July 10
02 JulEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - June 29 to July 3
02 JulFed Speakers in July 6 and 13 Weeks: Look Who's Talking
02 JulOverview June 6 & 13 Weeks: FOMC Minutes, Mon Pol Testimony, Beige Book
02 JulU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
02 JulTreasury Announces 3M, 6M Bill, 3Yr, 10Yr Note, & 30Yr Bond Auctions

Chart of the Day
District Bank Presidents' Seniority Revisited
District Bank Presidents' Seniority Revisited

Monday, 6 Jul
Markit US Services PMI  fJun 
  ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index  Jun  EST 56.5 Vs Prev's 55.7
  Labor Market Conditions Index Change  Jun   DUE Vs Prev's 1.3
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Freddie Mac will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions