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House Poised to Vote on ACA Repeal; Vote Too Close to Call
Key Takeaways:
-- The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote today on the American Health Care Act, legislation that would repeal much of the Affordable Care Act. The vote is currently too close to call.
--If the AHCA clears the House, it faces more difficult prospects in the Senate.
--Failure to repeal the ACA would make it more difficult for Republicans to enact other major fiscal policy changes.
Mar  23  
Commentaries

Trading Today - Claims, New Home Sales, Health Care Vote
The data calendar in the U.S. today will include Jobless Claims at the outset, followed by February New Home Sales and the March Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index. In the afternoon, Treasury will reopen the 3/8% of 1/15/27 10-year TIPS issue. Fed Chair Yellen will speak this morning,Fed President Kashkari will speak in the early afternoon, and Fed President Kaplan will speak this evening. Much of the focus though will be on the plans for the Congressional vote on the health care bill, the timing of which is still uncertain.
Mar  23  
Trading Today

Fixed Income Focus: Post FOMC Relief ... Q4-16 Corporate Financial Accounts
Treasury yields pushed higher through the first half of the week, but rallied in the aftermath of the less hawkish than feared FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections. The belly of the curve led the ensuing rally, driving the 7-year yield down nearly 10 basis points, with smaller gains further along the wings.

The value of outstanding U.S. corporate debt fell $116.0 billion during the fourth quarter of 2016. Despite heavy corporate debt issuance during the quarter, the sharp selloff in bond markets drove the overall value of outstanding debt lower. There was a large increase in the value of corporate debt held by the household sector, but insurance companies, foreign investors, and mutual funds all reported large declines in the value of their holdings.
Mar  17  
Fixed Income Focus

Trumpís Skinny Budget: Nothing More than A Wish List
Key Takeaways:
--President Trump released a budget blueprint that is little more than a wish list. Most of what he has proposed will never be enacted.
--Congress does need to pass legislation funding discretionary programs to avoid a government shutdown. The first risk of a shutdown comes next month.
Mar  17  
Commentaries

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Mar  17  


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:39Treasury Market Summary for Thursday, March 23
16:29Trading Tomorrow - Durables, Market PMIs, Fed Speakers
16:26Weekly Dealer Data: Fall in Treasuries Offset by Rise in MBS
16:02Treasury Technicals: Risk Assets Simply Stop Falling Ahead of Healthcare Vote
13:2010-Yr TIPS Bidding Details ... Mixed Buyside Interest
13:0510-Yr TIPS Auction Results ... Smaller Demand
11:3910-Year TIPS Auction Preview...Stats, Facts & Observations
11:05Treasury Announces Next Week's Bill, Note, & FRN Auctions
10:49February New Home Sales: Detailed Analysis
10:10Quick Take: February New Home Sales 592K


Chart of the Day
Spending and the Timing of the Easter Holiday
Spending and the Timing of the Easter Holiday

Thursday, 23 Mar
Fed's Yellen speaks at Community Development Conference
  Initial Jobless Claims  18-Mar  258K Vs Prev's 243Kr
  Continuing Claims  11-Mar  2000K Vs Prev's 2039Kr
  New Home Sales  Feb  592K Vs Prev's 558Kr
  Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity  Mar  20.0 Vs Prev's 14.0
  Treasury will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Treasury will announce a 52-week bill auction
  Treasury will announce 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year note auctions
  Treasury will announce a 2-year FRN auction
  Treasury will hold a 10-year TIPS reopening
  Fed's Kashkari speaks on U.S. Education Outcomes in D.C.
  Dallas Fed's Kaplan speaks on Economy in Chicago