Fixed Income Focus: Whipsaw Of A Week, And Nonfarm Payrolls Up Ahead
Treasury yields moved steadily higher after a wild start to this past week. An early rally in response to plunging global risk asset prices reversed once risk markets stabilized.
This past week's Treasury coupon auctions didn't go especially well overall, as the solid 7-year auction wasn't enough to make up for the weakness in the 2-year and 5-year auctions.
Fixed Income Focus
FOMC Roll Call - Enough or Not? - Update
Back on August 13 we ran a Chart of the Day on our FOMC Roll Call to assess the outlook for monetary policy at the September 16-17 meeting. Here we update our thinking, taking into account developments in China and global financial markets, as well as recent comments from Fed officials.
US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Who's Exposed to the Turmoil in the Stock Market?
--The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) for 2013 shows that just under half of families held stocks either directly or indirectly.
--Not surprisingly, the share of families invested in equities rises with income.
--Families at all income levels have more exposure to stocks than they did in the late 1980s and early 1990s. For most income groups, the peak exposure was either in 2001 or 2007.
--For those families who held stocks in 2013, they accounted for just over half of financial assets.
Could August Payrolls Suffer A Downside Bias?
In this note we review a few observations regarding the history of the 1st closing or initial release of August payrolls. These observations suggest that the initial release of August payrolls may suffer an inherent downside bias. We suspect this bias is an artifact of the 1st closing of August payrolls being based on a sample of responses that is not well representative of the larger sample of responses incorporated into the 2nd and 3rd release of August payrolls.