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HAMP's Principal Reduction Alternative -- The Results So Far
Late last month, the Administration announced an expansion of the Home Affordable Modification Program's (HAMP) Principal Reduction Alternative (PRA). In this comment, we describe that program and its results to-date. Like many programs designed to help struggling homeowners, PRA seems to work well for those it helps, but it's helping a small number of homeowners.
Feb 6 Mortgages

Global Equity Perspective: Markets Pause, After Improved Global Picture
On Friday, Canada's TSX and India's BSE 30 became the latest indices to join the S&P 500, FTSE 100, Bovespa, DAX, KOSPI and Bolsa on the list of indices covered in this 14 country report to be trading above their 200-day lines. While secondary indicators are warning of the market's vulnerability to short-term mean reversion once again, the trend is still up. Therefore, some more filling of the gap up to 2 standard deviations above the S&P's 50-day moving average near 1356 may be in order. For us to suggest that a period of mean reversion lasting > 1 week is unfolding, movement below 1330.70 is required.
Feb 6 Technicals

Fixed Income Focus: February Refunding Auctions ... Review & Preview
For most of this past week, Treasury yields were a little mixed, but modestly lower from the 5-year on out as the curve flattened. That all reversed in the wake of Friday morning's very strong Employment Situation report from the BLS, and yields wound up higher for the week across the curve, and the curve was a touch steeper.

Treasury debt managers will come to market with a $72 billion three-part Refunding package next week, consisting of a $32 billion 3-year note, a $24 billion 10-year note and a $16.0 billion 30-year bond. The Refunding auction cash flows will be more generous than they have been for some time.
Feb 3 Fixed Income Focus

SMR US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Feb 3 Economic Research

January Employment Analysis--Payrolls
Key "Take-Aways":
(1) +243,000 January Payrolls Remarkable
(2) Benchmark Revision +162K, Post-Benchmark +80K, Routine Revision +60K
(3) Strong Construction, Manufacturing, Business Services
(4) Further Decline in Unemployment Rate
(5) All Good News
Feb 3 Previews/Reviews