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Trading Today - ECI, Claims, Chicago Data All On Tap
The data calendar in the U.S. is packed with second tier releases today. The Challenger Job Cuts figures for July are due out ahead of the market open, followed by Jobless Claims and the Q2 ECI at the open. The July ISM Milwaukee and Chicago Business Barometer figures are due out during the morning as well.
Jul  31  
Trading Today

FOMC Statement from July 29-30: Plosser Dissented on 'Considerable Time'
Key Take-Aways:
1. In August, the Fed will reduce the size of its asset purchases by another $10 billion (by $5 billion each for Agency MBS and Treasurys) to a total of $25 billion per month.
2. Statement substantially the same as June 18 version, slightly more upbeat on labor market, diminished restraint from fiscal policy, inflation "somewhat closer" to target.
3. Philadelphia President Charles Plosser dissented against "time dependent" language of "considerable time", and that it did not acknowledge "considerable economic progress".
Jul  30  
Federal Reserve

The 7-Year Note Auction Preview ... Stats, Facts & Observations
The $29.0 billion 7-year note auction this afternoon will complete this week's package of Treasury coupon auctions. The 7-year note auction sizes have been steady at $29.0 billion since July 2010. The auction will raise all new cash when this week's month-end coupon auctions settle tomorrow, July 31.
Jul  30  
Trading Today

Preview July Employment--Payrolls, Forecasts, Revisions and the UR
In this Preview of July Employment we detail the basis for our July forecast, discuss the key July wild card, review the forecast record, and the record of revision to June payrolls. And we take a look at the prospects for the July Unemployment Rate.
Jul  29  
Previews/Reviews

Controlling Short Term Interest Rates, If Not ON RRP Program, What?
The Minutes of the June FOMC meeting, comments from dealers, and most recently Sheila Bair's WSJ Opinion (July 25) piece have all raised questions regarding the Fed's ON RRP program, now in the testing phase. Sheila Blair contends the Fed should put the ON RRP program back in the toolbox and throw away the key. We think she is wrong.
Jul  28  
Federal Reserve Research


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:50Treasury Market Summary For Thursday, July 31
16:44Trading Tomorrow - Payrolls! Income & PCE, Michigan, ISM Mfg, Car Sales
15:21Treasury Market Technicals
15:04Fed Releases August Treasury Coupon Purchase Schedule
13:37August 4 Week Overview: Quarterly Refunding, Sr. Loan Officer Survey
13:19Fed Speakers in August 4 Week: Look Who's Talking
11:04Treasury Announces 3-Month and 6-Month Auction Details
11:04NY Fed Open Market Desk Buys $1.133 Billion in Treasury Coupons
10:38Analysis - July MNI-Chicago ISM Business Barometer 52.6; Down 10 Points
10:17Preview Of Today''s Fed Purchase In 02/15/2036 to 05/15/2044 Sector


Chart of the Day
Homeownership, Rental Vacancy Rates Decline
Homeownership, Rental Vacancy Rates Decline

Thursday, 31 Jul
Challenger Job Cuts YoY  Jul  24.4% Vs Prev's -20.2%
  ECI +0.7% Vs Prev's +0.3%
  Initial Jobless Claims  wk 7/26  302K Vs Prev's 279Kr
  Continuing Claims  wk 7/19  2539K Vs Prev's 2508Kr
  Chicago Purchasing Manager Index  Jul  52.6 Vs Prev's 62.6
  Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bill auctions  DUE Vs Prev's n.a.
  The NY Fed's Open Market Desk will conduct an outright purchase operation in the 02/15/2036 through 05/15/2044 maturity range