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Budget Review for February: A Little Hope, A Lot of Quirks
The Treasury reported a budget deficit of $220.9 billion for February, compared to $193.9 billion in February of 2009. Individual income taxes looked stronger than they were because of quirky refund accounting. Still, there are signs of some underlying improvement on the revenue side. Meanwhile, spending for the fiscal year to-date was artificially subdued because of calendar quirks and less financial crisis-related spending.
Mar  10  
Treasury Market

30-year Bond Reopening Preview...Will Depository Institutions Return?
The Treasury wraps up this week's coupon auctions with the $13.0 bln reopening of the 30-year bond. Last month, the big surprise in the auction allotment figures was the record depositary institution allotments, which had previously been a minuscule factor at the auctions.
Mar  10  
Treasury Auction

Thursday in Words & Numbers - Fed Speakers, Economic Data & More
On Thursday, March 11, the economic data is confined to two releases: weekly initial jobless claims and the international trade report, both at 8:30 ET. New York Fed President Dudley will be in London to give a speech, but it is unlikely to reveal anything new before the FOMC meeting on March 16. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand makes its routine monetary policy announcement in the overnight hours and no change is expected.
Mar  10  
Economic Research

Inferences From January Job Openings And Labor Turnover Survey
Yesterday the BLS released the January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the so-called JOLTS data. These data provided a richer understanding of the monthly payroll data. The January JOLTS data were generally upbeat, and suggest that labor market prospects have improved.
Mar  10  
Economic Research

FOMC Meeting Preview - Will ''Extended Period'' Become ''Some Time'' Again?
It was in the March 18, 2009 FOMC statement that the "extended period" language was introduced to offer assurance that the 0%-0.25% fed funds target range adopted in December of 2008 would be there to support the economy for a long time. This was one of the darkest periods of the recession, which has since given way to a vastly improved labor market and some modest growth. So, at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 16, will the FOMC move away from the "extended period" language in favor of some formulation that implies the time for extraordinarily low rates is getting shorter?
Mar  9  
Federal Reserve Research


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
11:153- AND 6- MONTH BILLS -- Estimated Public Bidding Pools
10:51--> Europe/UK Tomorrow: EMU IP, Ger Whl, Fr CA, ECB/BoE Speakers
10:22Euro Mkt Summary: EGBs Down As Budget Deficit Concerns Lessen
09:47January Trade Balance—Analysis
09:38Preview - New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey
09:02US Treasury Market Opening and Intraday Techs
08:56Analysis - Initial Jobless Claims Fall 6,000 to 462,000 in March 6 Week
08:52First Impressions-> January US International Trade Deficit
08:48S&P 500 Technicals
08:38Money Market Update: Libor Rates Mixed; GC Rate, Fed Funds Rise


Chart of the Day
Southern California Port Traffic
Southern California Port Traffic

Thursday, 11 Mar
Trade Balance  Jan  -$37.3B Vs Prev's -$39.9Br
  Initial Claims  wk 03/06  462K Vs Prev's 468Kr
  Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bills
  Fannie Mae will price 3-year notes
  Treasury will auction the reopening of 30-year bonds
  NY Fed Pres Dudley speaks at the Society of Business Economists annual dinner in London
WBC-MI Inflation Expectations  Mar  3.2% Vs Prev's 3.2%
  Unemployment Rate  Feb  5.3% Vs Prev's 5.2%
  Employment  Feb  +0.4 Vs Prev's +56.5
  Participation Rate  Feb  65.2% Vs Prev's 65.3%
  RBNZ OCR review 2.50% Vs Prev's 2.50%
  NZ Food prices (MoM)  Feb  -1.3% Vs Prev's 2.1%
  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement   Q1 
GDP (QoQ rev) 0.9% Vs Prev's 1.1%
Bank of Korea Policy meeting 2.00% Vs Prev's 2.00%
  Malaysian IP (YoY)  Jan   DUE Vs Prev's 8.9%
Retail Sales (YoY%/YTD YoY%)  Feb  +22.1%/+17.9% Vs Prev's +17.5%/+15.5%
  Industrial Output (YoY/YTD YoY)  Feb  +12.8%/+20.7% Vs Prev's +18.5%/+11.0%
  Urban Fixed Asset Investment (YTD YoY%)  Jan-Feb  +26.6% Vs Prev's +30.5%
  New Loans (bln yuan)  Feb  +700.1/+2090.1 Vs Prev's +1390/+1390
  Money Supply (M2) (YoY%)  Feb  +25.52% Vs Prev's +25.98%
  CPI (YoY%/YTD YoY%)  Feb  +2.7%/+2.1% Vs Prev's +1.5%/+1.5%
  PPI (YoY%/YTD YoY%)  Feb  +5.4%/+4.9% Vs Prev's +4.3%/+4.3%
EMU Current Account 1st Release (QoQ) -27.0 Vs Prev's -27.7
  ECB publishes Monthly Report  Mar   DUE Vs Prev's n.a.
  ECB's Mersch speaks in Luxembourg
BoE/GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes Svy (Yr Ahead Expectations %)  Feb  2.5 Vs Prev's 2.4
  DMO Gilt Auction (Stg900mln 1.25% 2032 IL Gilt)
Final INSEE Non-Farm Payrolls (% QoQ) -0.1 Vs Prev's -0.6
  Government Budget Deficit (EUR bln ytd)  Jan  -9.2 Vs Prev's -138.0
Irish CPI (HICP %mom/yoy)  Feb  0.2/-2.4 Vs Prev's -0.7/-2.4
Swiss National Bank interest rate decision 0.25% Vs Prev's 0.25%
CPI (%mom/yoy)  Feb  0.6/1.2 Vs Prev's -0.6/0.6
  UNDIX CPI (%mom/yoy)  Feb  0.6/2.7 Vs Prev's -0.2/2.6