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FOMC Statement from July 27: Risks ''Diminished'' for Near-Term
Key Take-Aways:
1. Assessment of economy more upbeat with improved labor market, consumer spending, and small firming in inflation.
2. "Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished."
3. No tweak to forward guidance.
4. Kansas City Fed's George dissents; vote 9-1.
Jul  27  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Quiet Week Ahead of Supply, FOMC ... 2-Year Preview
Treasury yields have held to a quiet, uneventful range trade since last Friday. For the most part, the 2-year note has been mired in a roughly 0.66% to 0.72% range, the 5-year between roughly 1.08% and 1.15%, the 10-year yield between the 1.53% area and 1.60%, and the yield on the bond largely held between 1.26% and 2.32%. There was a small break above the high end of those ranges early on Thursday, but that quickly petered out, and when that move failed yields fell right back into the ranges through the week's end.

Treasury will hold the $26.0 billion 2-year note auction on Monday afternoon. Hesitancy ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision could keep some potential bidders at bay, but the issue has been trading particularly special in repo, suggesting a solid short-base ahead of the auction. We expect that will be enough to generate a much better auction than last month's.
Jul  22  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul  22  

A Trump Win – US’s ‘Leave’ Vote Impact on Markets
Since a Trump presidential win is not the current consensus, his victory could spark a massive global risk-off trade in the markets. However, we foresee Trump's extreme fiscal and trade proposals being moderated by Congress - even a GOP dominated Congress. While still negative overall for the economy and markets, the outcome would not be as bad as feared.
Jul  22  
Commentaries

FOMC Meeting Preview for July 26-27: Still Watching, Still Waiting
In recent weeks, expectations for a rate hike at the July 26-27 meeting have dropped to virtually nil. Although the economic data confirm that the US economy has fared reasonably well in spite of headwinds, the FOMC is likely to continue to watch and wait as it assesses the risks to the outlook from developments in the global economy. In particular, the FOMC will have to consider the impact of another round of appreciation in the US dollar that began in May and continued modestly after the surprise win of the "leave" vote in the Brexit referendum.
Jul  19  
Federal Reserve


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
27 JulTreasury Market Summary For Wednesday, July 27
27 JulTrading Tomorrow - Claims, Advance Goods Trade, 7-Year Auction
27 JulTreasury Market Technicals: Yields Succumb to LT Forces, But For How Long?
27 JulMini History FOMC Vote Dissents - George Dissents a Third Time
27 JulFOMC Statement from July 27: Risks ''Diminished'' for Near-Term
27 JulFOMC Statement Editorial Changes
27 JulSMRA Portfolio Survey - Bullish Outlook Into FOMC Meeting
27 Jul2-Year FRN Bidding Details ... Large Bids but Not Much Else
27 Jul2-Year FRN Auction Results ...Not Bad
27 JulPending Home Sales Edge Up 0.2% in June


Chart of the Day
What is the FOMC Watching?<br>Spending, Housing Market
What is the FOMC Watching?
Spending, Housing Market

Thursday, 28 Jul
Initial Jobless Claims  23-Jul  EST 270K Vs Prev's 253K
  Continuing Claims  16-Jul   DUE Vs Prev's 2128K
  Advance Goods Trade Balance  Jun   DUE Vs Prev's -$60.6B
  New U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators
  Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index  Jul   DUE Vs Prev's 2.0
  Treasury will announce a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 7-year note auction
  Fannie Mae may announce benchmark notes