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Oxford Economics/SMRA Webcast
On Tuesday Greg Daco, Kathy Bostjancic and Ray Stone participated in an Oxford Economics Webcast regarding the outlook for the US economy. This Webcast is available here.
Aug  25  
Economic Research

Discount Rate Comment - How Many Requests Does it Take?
After reviewing the discount rate meeting minutes of July 25, a reader asked SMRA if it was unusual for the Board of Governors to receive so many requests for a rate hike and not grant one. In non-crisis conditions, it appears that the Board will start seeing an increase in the number of requests for a change in the discount rate some months before making a rate decision. The threshold at which a rate decision becomes more likely seems to be around 6-8 requests, depending on economic conditions. We would not conclude that the Board makes the decision based on the strength of requests, but rather that these tend to coincide with turns in the economy and mounting evidence that a change in rates is appropriate -- in either direction.
Aug  24  
Federal Reserve

Discount Rate Meeting Minutes - July 25 Mtg Had 8 Requests for Disc Rate Hike
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the discount rate meeting July 25. At the July pre-FOMC meeting, the minutes said, "Board members considered the primary credit rate and discussed, on a preliminary basis, their individual assessments of the appropriate rate and its communication, which would be discussed at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee this week. No sentiment was expressed for changing the primary credit rate before the Committee's meeting, and the existing rate was maintained. Thereafter, a discussion of economic and financial developments and issues related to possible policy actions took place." At the July 25 the Board had eight requests for an increase of 25 basis points in the discount rate to 1.25% from Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. This was up from the six requests at the prior meeting on June 13.
Aug  24  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Stuck In Ranges ... Month-End Auction Preview
Treasury yields were higher this past week, but still stuck within the same narrow ranges that have held since early-to-mid July. Yields climbed higher through the first half of this past week in response to rising risk assets, including stocks and oil prices. There was a bit of a relief rally after the minutes to the July FOMC meeting were released; weaker equities later in the week also provided some support to Treasuries. By week’s end, though, more hawkish comments from Fed officials were again weighing on Treasuries. In this comment, we also preview the upcoming 2-, 5- and 7-yer note auctions.
Aug  19  
Commentaries

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Aug  19  


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
25 AugTreasury Market Summary For Thursday, August 25
25 AugWeekly Dealer Data: Massive Unloading of Holdings
25 AugTrading Tomorrow - GDP, Advance Goods, Michigan ... Yellen
25 AugTreasury Market Technicals: Bears Grow Confident Ahead of GDP, Yellen
25 Aug7-Year Bidding Details: Indirect Demand Slips
25 Aug7-Year Note Auction Results ... Disappointing
25 AugOverview Aug. 29 Week: Employment Situation, ADP, ISM Mfg, Car Sales
25 AugFed Speakers in August 29 Week: Look Who's Talking
25 AugTreasury Holds Bill Auction Sizes Steady
25 AugThe 7-Year Note Auction Preview ... Stats, Facts & Observations


Chart of the Day
Computer Exports & Imports
Computer Exports & Imports

Friday, 26 Aug
Advance Goods Trade Balance  Jul   DUE Vs Prev's -$63.3B
  GDP Annualized QoQ  2Qs  EST +0.9% Vs Prev's +1.2%
  GDP Price Index  2Qs   DUE Vs Prev's +2.2%
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment  fAug  EST 90.8 Vs Prev's 90.4
  Fed Chair Yellen to speak at Jackson Hole Policy Symposium