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Trading Today - Claims, New Home Sales, 10-Year TIPS Auction
The U.S. calendar picks up today. After the nearly empty calendar yesterday, this morning kicks off with Jobless Claims, followed by the Markit US PMI release, New Home Sales, and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index. The push and pull of supply will include a Fed purchase in the morning in the 4.75-year to 5.75-year sector of the curve, and a $15.0 billion 10-year TIPS auction in the afternoon.
Jul  24  
Trading Today

What Did We Learn From the June State Payroll Data?
The June sum-of-states (sos) payroll increase was 205,000, somewhat below the national gain of 288,000. The BLS warns against simply summing the states to get an aggregated national number, because the states are seasonally adjusted independently, and because the response rates between states are not always comparable. For these reasons caution has to be employed when comparing the state data with the national totals.
Jul  21  
Economic Research

Fixed Income Focus: Curve Flattening Continues ... 10-Year TIPS On Tap
Treasury yields were mixed this past week. As curve flattening dominated the action, yields were higher out through the 7-year, but 10-year and bond yields were lower. The recent acceleration in the curve flattening collapsed the 3-year/30-year spread to just 232 basis points as of late Friday afternoon, which is the narrowest it's been since the beginning of August 2012, and the 5-year/30-year spread to 162 basis points, which is the narrowest since February 26, 2009.

Other than the weekly 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month bill auctions, Treasury supply during the upcoming week will be limited to only a 52-week bill auction and a 10-year TIPS auction. Treasury will hold a $25 billion 52-week bill auction on Tuesday morning and a $15 billion 10-year TIPS auction on Thursday afternoon. It will be the sixth consecutive $25 billion auction size for the 52-week bill auction, while the original issue 10-year TIPS auctions have been $15 billion since the beginning of 2012.
Jul  18  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul  18  
Economics

SMRA Beige Book Activity Index 1.00; Same as Prior Report
The SMRA Beige Book Activity Index (BBAI) remained at its trend level of 1.00 based on our reading of the latest issue of the Fed's Beige Book. Our index was at 1.00 in the prior report, and 0.89 in the report before that. A reading of 1.00 points to respectable -- if unexceptional -- growth. Eleven Districts said growth was "moderate" (5) or "modest" (6), with the remaining one (Boston) saying that on balance, "considerable variation" pointed to "slow overall economic growth". We had looked for some slight pickup in the tone of the report, but in the current issue it remained one of middling activity, although the outlook for the future is broadly upbeat.
Jul  16  
Economic Research


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
10:24First Impressions - June New Home Sales Down 8.1% to 406,000
10:16Preview Of Today's Fed Purchase In 04/30/2019 to 03/31/2020 Sector
10:01Data Flash! June New Home Sales 406K
08:53Initial Unemployment Claims-Lower Auto Claims
08:36Repo Update - 2-Year Note Remains Tight
08:31Data Flash! Initial Claims Down 19K to 284K
08:24Corporate Review - Supply, Spreads, & Activity For Wednesday, July 23
08:22S&P 500 Technicals
07:38Chart of the Day: Has Construction Lost Workers to Energy?
07:33Trading Today - Claims, New Home Sales, 10-Year TIPS Auction


Chart of the Day
Has Construction Lost Workers to Energy?
Has Construction Lost Workers to Energy?

Thursday, 24 Jul
Initial Jobless Claims  wk 7/19  284K Vs Prev's 303Kr
  Continuing Claims  wk 7/12  2500K Vs Prev's 2508Kr
  Markit US Manufacturing PMI  pJul  56.3 Vs Prev's 57.3
  New Home Sales  Jun  406K Vs Prev's 442Kr
  Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity  Jul 
  Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bill auctions
  The NY Fed's Open Market Desk will conduct an outright purchase operation in the 04/30/2019 through 03/31/2020 maturity range
  Treasury will hold a 10-year TIPS auction
  Fannie Mae to price 5-year benchmark notes