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Preview May Employment-Verizon Strike, Continued Payback
We look for May Payrolls to be up only 135,000, following a 160,000 gain in April and a 220,000 average monthly gain in the 6-months ending April. Our forecast is somewhat below the current Bloomberg median estimate of +160,000.
May  31  

Today Is SMR Survey Day!
SMR will conduct the weekly survey of SMR money managers today. Questions are listed in SMRA #30 on the Bloomberg and by clicking on the link here. Summary data will be proprietary to SMR clients. The results will be presented on Wednesday. Thank you for your participation!
May  31  
Portfolio Manager Survey

Fixed Income Focus: Quiet Week for Treasuries Ahead of Long Weekend
Treasury yields held to quiet, narrow ranges over the course of this past week. The week's entire yield ranges were only 6 to 8 basis points across the coupon curve, and yields were within about 1 basis point of the prior Friday's close across the coupon curve into Friday's early close. The calendar will be exceptionally busy during the holiday-shortened week ahead, however, which might generate a little better price action.
May  31  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
May  27  

April 26-27 FOMC Meeting Minutes - June a Possibility
Key Take-Aways:
* The minutes from April 26-27 meeting were more hawkish in tone than expected.
* Risks diminished, labor market improved and improving, signs of pick up in inflation.
* Concerns that markets may not have 'properly assessed' likelihood of rate hike.
* No change in rates, but left "open the possibility of an increase in the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting".
May  18  
Federal Reserve

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:44Treasury Market Summary For Tuesday, May 31
16:42A Strong Finish to the Income Tax Refund Season
16:35Trading Tomorrow - Manufacturing PMIs, Car Sales, Construction, Beige Book
15:31Treasury Technicals: This is Make or Break Week for Sellers
14:16Preview May Light Vehicle Sales
13:044-Week Bill Auction Results... Ugly
12:22Preview May Employment-Verizon Strike, Continued Payback
11:503 & 6-Month Bidding Details: Extraordinarily Average
11:343 & 6-Month Bill Auction Results...Uneventful
11:30SMRA Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Survey Is Open

Chart of the Day
Extracts from G7, G20 Statements on<BR>FX, Financial Markets
Extracts from G7, G20 Statements on
FX, Financial Markets

Tuesday, 31 May
Personal Income  Apr  +0.4% Vs Prev's +0.4%
  Personal Consumption Expenditures  Apr  +1.0% Vs Prev's 0.0%r
  Real PCE  Apr  +0.6% Vs Prev's 0.0%
  S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA  Mar  +0.85% Vs Prev's +0.71%r
  S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY NSA  Mar  +5.43% Vs Prev's +5.43%r
  Chicago Purchasing Manager Index  May  49.3 Vs Prev's 50.4
  Consumer Confidence Index  May  92.6 Vs Prev's 94.7
  Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index  May  -20.8 Vs Prev's -13.9
  Treasury will hold a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 4-week bill auction
  Freddie Mac will announce reference bills