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US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Dec  15  

Tax reform entering the final stretch?
Republicans are on track to pass a tax cut bill for President Trump to sign before Christmas. House and Senate budget conferees appear to have finalized some provisions of their legislation, but many elements, including how to pay for some of the latest changes, have not been settled.
Passing spending legislation for 2018 may prove to be more contentious than passing tax cuts. Congress has to pass another stop-gap budget measure by December 22, and the stage is being set for a confrontation between the House and Senate.
Dec  15  
Commentaries

Research Briefing for December 12-13 FOMC Meeting Statement and SEP
As widely anticipated, the FOMC announced a 25 basis-point increase in the fed funds target range to 1.25% - 1.50%. There was one more dissent than expected as Chicago Fed President Evans joined Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari in favoring to keep rates unchanged. However, Evans and Kashkari will not be voting members of the FOMC next year and the voting rotation turns more hawkish as we have previously highlighted. The Fed's median dot plot estimates for the fed funds rate remained unchanged, except for an increase to the year-end 2020 forecast to 3.1% from 2.9% previously. The median estimate remains for three 25 basis-point rate hikes for 2018.
Dec  13  
Federal Reserve

Research Briefing - 2018 Bond market: still room to flatten
The Treasury coupon curve has flattened sharply this year. Yields at the frontend of the curve have been climbing along with Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, but the 10-year note yield is very little changed on the year. Based on our 2018 outlook for the economy, inflation, and central bank activity, we think the curve still has room to flatten further during the year ahead, although we expect rates will be higher across the curve. Although there have been concerns raised about what the curve flattening might indicate for the economy, any recession fears based on the narrow Treasury spreads are premature.
Dec  13  
Treasury Market

Fixed Income Focus: 3-year & 10-year note auction previews
Treasury yields were less than 3 basis points higher for the week across the curve as of late Friday afternoon. The first half of the week was again dominated by curve flattening trades, but that began to reverse slightly during the latter part of the week, leaving the curve still flatter for the fourth week in a row, but only slightly.

Treasury debt managers will come to market with a $58.0 billion package of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auctions during the week ahead. They will hold a $24.0 billion 3-year note auction Monday morning, with an 11:30am bidding deadline, a $20.0 billion reopening of the 2 1/4% 10-year note Monday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline, and a $12.0 billion reopening of the 2 3/4% 30-year bond on Tuesday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline. This will be the first reopenings for the 10-year and 30-year bonds following the original issues auctions at last month's Refunding.
Dec  8  
Fixed Income Focus


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
15 DecThis Week’s Macro Musings
15 DecForeign investors preferred Treasury bills in October
15 DecEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook: December 18 to December 22
15 DecEconomic Week in Review Chartbook: December 11 to December 15
15 DecCFTC CoT Data Analysis
15 DecTreasury Market Summary for Friday, December 15
15 DecForeign investor holdings dip $4.809 Bln in US bond market
15 DecTreasury Market Technicals
15 DecFixed Income Focus: Curve Flattening Remains Dominant
15 DecU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table


Chart of the Day
New SMRA Platform
New SMRA Platform

Monday, 18 Dec
NAHB Housing Market Index  Dec  EST 70 Vs Prev's 70
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Freddie Mac will announce reference bills