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Trading Today - FOMC Aftermath ... Claims, GDP, 7-Year Auction
The morning's data calendar in the U.S. will be dominated by the Q3 GDP and Jobless Claims releases due out just after the open. We expect the GDP release will take center stage. Once through the data, dealers will need to position ahead of the afternoon's 7-year note auction.
Oct  30  
Trading Today

The 7-Year Note Auction Preview ... Stats, Facts & Observations
The $29.0 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday afternoon will complete this week's package of Treasury coupon auctions. The 7-year note auction sizes have been steady at $29.0 billion since July 2010. The auction will raise all new cash when this week's month-end coupon auctions settle on Friday.
Oct  29  
Treasury Auction

FOMC Statement from Oct. 28-29: Keeps ''Considerable Time''
Key Take-Aways:
1. The FOMC retained the 'considerable time' language for its forward guidance, but overall more hawkish in tone regarding labor market and economy.
2. 'Underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing'.
3. 'Inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors'.
4. Asset purchases cut by $15 billion; program ends in November.
5. 9-1 vote suggested shift to more moderate center in FOMC sentiment regarding policy outlook.
Oct  29  
Federal Reserve

Mortgage Focus: Don't Expect the Credit Floodgates to Open
Key Takeaways:
--FHFA last week announced additional changes to the GSEs' reps and warrants framework designed to further reduce lender concerns about putback risk.
--The changes should produce some increase in lending, but we don't look for the credit floodgates to open.
--The GSEs are buying more loans from smaller banks and nonbank lenders. It's not clear how that trend might be affected by the new reps and warrants framework, but we doubt it will be reversed.
--Putback risk isn't the only factor constraining lending, although it's been a major one. New regulatory requirements are also impacting the flow of credit.
--The GSEs will also issue new guidelines on low down-payment loans in the weeks ahead. The GSEs currently back loans with low down payments, although they charge a large fee for doing so.
Oct  27  

Fixed Income Focus: A Corrective Mood ... Month-End Supply Preview
Treasury yields churned a little higher this past week, led by the belly of the curve. Much of the price action was just a slow correction to the blowout rally through the middle of the prior week.

Treasury will come to market during the upcoming week with a $93.0 billion package of month-end 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes. They will hold a $29.0 billion 2-year note auction on Tuesday afternoon, a $35.0 billion 5-year note auction on Wednesday afternoon, and a $29.0 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday afternoon. In addition to the implications of the mixed demand at the mid-month auctions this month, the 2-year and 5-year note auctions will be made more difficult by the proximity of Wednesday afternoon's FOMC decision.
Oct  24  
Fixed Income Focus

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
09:29Review--Q3 Advance GDP
08:47Analysis - Initial Jobless Claims Up 3000 to 287,000 in Oct. 25 Week
08:44First Impressions--Q3-2014 GDP
08:38Repo Update - GC Rate Remains High
08:36Data Flash! Initial Claims Up 3K to 287K
08:31Data Flash! Adv:Q3 Estimate GDP Up 3.5%; GDP Deflator Up 1.3%
08:20Corporate Review - Supply, Spreads, & Activity For Wednesday, Oct. 29
08:18Equity Market Technicals
07:41Trading Today - FOMC Aftermath ... Claims, GDP, 7-Year Auction
06:11Chart of the Day: Mini History of LSAP (QE) Programs

Chart of the Day
Mini History of LSAP (QE) Programs
Mini History of LSAP (QE) Programs

Thursday, 30 Oct
Initial Jobless Claims  25-Oct  287K Vs Prev's 284Kr
  Continuing Claims  18-Oct  2384K Vs Prev's 2355Kr
  GDP Annualized QoQ  3Qa  +3.5% Vs Prev's +4.6%
  GDP Price Index  3Qa  +1.3% Vs Prev's +2.1%
  Personal Consumption  3Qa  +1.8% Vs Prev's +2.5%
  Core PCE QoQ  3Qa  +1.4% Vs Prev's +2.0%
  Treasury will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Treasury will hold a 7-year note auction
  Freddie Mac may announce reference notes