Preview May Employment-Verizon Strike, Continued Payback
We look for May Payrolls to be up only 135,000, following a 160,000 gain in April and a 220,000 average monthly gain in the 6-months ending April. Our forecast is somewhat below the current Bloomberg median estimate of +160,000.
Today Is SMR Survey Day!
SMR will conduct the weekly survey of SMR money managers today. Questions are listed in SMRA #30 on the Bloomberg and by clicking on the link here. Summary data will be proprietary to SMR clients. The results will be presented on Wednesday. Thank you for your participation!
Portfolio Manager Survey
Fixed Income Focus: Quiet Week for Treasuries Ahead of Long Weekend
Treasury yields held to quiet, narrow ranges over the course of this past week. The week's entire yield ranges were only 6 to 8 basis points across the coupon curve, and yields were within about 1 basis point of the prior Friday's close across the coupon curve into Friday's early close. The calendar will be exceptionally busy during the holiday-shortened week ahead, however, which might generate a little better price action.
Fixed Income Focus
US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
April 26-27 FOMC Meeting Minutes - June a Possibility
* The minutes from April 26-27 meeting were more hawkish in tone than expected.
* Risks diminished, labor market improved and improving, signs of pick up in inflation.
* Concerns that markets may not have 'properly assessed' likelihood of rate hike.
* No change in rates, but left "open the possibility of an increase in the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting".