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Today Is SMR Survey Day!
SMRA will conduct the weekly Portfolio Managers Survey today. Responses can be entered at the link here. Summary data will be proprietary to SMRA clients. The results will be presented on Wednesday. Thank you for your participation!
Jun  27  
Portfolio Manager Survey

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of this week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jun  26  

Fixed Income Focus: Curve Flattening Dominates...2Yr Auction Preview
Treasury yields were mixed this past week as the curve continued to flatten, partially in response to tumbling oil prices.

Treasury will hold a $26.0 billion 2-year note auction on Monday afternoon. If the auction were to stop in line with the current WI bid it would be the highest stopout rate for a 2-year auction since October 2008. The 2-year note has also been trading especially tight in repo, and the exceptional front-end foreign demand for the 3-year during the mid-month coupon auction cycle, raises the possibility of demand for the 2-year as well.
Jun  25  
Trading Today

Research Briefing - Inflation - the core reasons for the slowdown
The pace of inflation has decelerated markedly this year, as the annual advance in the consumer price index (CPI) has slowed to 1.9% in May from 2.7% in February and the core CPI (ex food and energy) has slipped to 1.7% in May from 2.3% in January. Similarly, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on an annual basis, has moderated to 1.7% in April from 2.2% in February and the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) fell to 1.5% from 1.8% over the same time period. This slowdown represents a bit of a puzzle given that many top-down economic indicators suggest that inflation should be accelerating at this point in the business cycle or, at a minimum, stabilizes around the Fed's 2% inflation target. The top-down measures include a narrowing GDP output gap and a labor market near or at full employment. As resource slack in the economy diminishes, upward inflation pressures typically build. However, there are a number of structural changes in the economy that alter the historical relationship between labor slack, wages, and inflation.
Jun  16  
Economic Research

Viewpoint - FOMC: Normalization planned, but inflation key
As fully anticipated, the FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 1% - 1.25%. Additionally, in line with our expectations, the FOMC announced its plan for balance sheet reduction, with the paring of debt reinvestments intended to begin this year. The FOMC signaled it intends to continue normalizing interest rates and the balance sheet in the near-term. This is predicated on their unchanged view that inflation next year will reach the 2% target rate, despite the recent deceleration in inflation. We continue to expect the FOMC to impose one more rate hike in 2017, but downside risk to the inflation outlook means a greater possibility of a pause in rate hikes this year. To view the PDF, click here.
Jun  14  
Federal Reserve


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:42Treasury Market Summary for Tuesday, June 27
16:30Trading Tomorrow - Adv. Indicators, Pending Home Sales, 7Y & 2Y FRN
15:41Treasury Market Technicals: Big Test Awaits 10s at 2.23%/2.26%
13:53Fed Take: Chair Janet Yellen - Does not comment on monetary policy
13:185-Year Auction Bidding Details: Dealer Bid Shrinks
13:045-Year Note Auction Results ... Soft
12:53Regional Fed Surveys on Services for June - Expansion Continued
12:40Regional Fed Mfg Surveys in June - Factory Sector Generally Firmed
11:344-Week Bill Auction Results... Lackluster
11:335-Year Note Auction Preview...Stats, Facts & Observations


Chart of the Day
Some Milestones before the July 25-26 FOMC Meeting
Some Milestones before the July 25-26 FOMC Meeting

Tuesday, 27 Jun
Fed's Williams speaks in Sydney
  S&P CS 20-City MoM SA  Apr  +0.3% Vs Prev's +0.5%r
  S&P CS 20-City YoY NSA  Apr  +5.7% Vs Prev's +5.9%
  Conference Board Consumer Confidence  Jun  118.9 Vs Prev's 117.6
  Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index  Jun  7.0 Vs Prev's 1.0
  Fed's Harker speaks in London
  Treasury will hold a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 5-year note auction
  Fed's Yellen speaks in London
  Fed's Kashkari speaks in Michigan