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Today Is SMR Survey Day!
SMRA will conduct the weekly Portfolio Managers Survey today. Responses can be entered at the link here. Summary data will be proprietary to SMRA clients. The results will be presented on Wednesday. Thank you for your participation!
Dec  12  
Portfolio Manager Survey

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Dec  8  

Fixed Income Focus: 3-year & 10-year note auction previews
Treasury yields were less than 3 basis points higher for the week across the curve as of late Friday afternoon. The first half of the week was again dominated by curve flattening trades, but that began to reverse slightly during the latter part of the week, leaving the curve still flatter for the fourth week in a row, but only slightly.

Treasury debt managers will come to market with a $58.0 billion package of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year auctions during the week ahead. They will hold a $24.0 billion 3-year note auction Monday morning, with an 11:30am bidding deadline, a $20.0 billion reopening of the 2 1/4% 10-year note Monday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline, and a $12.0 billion reopening of the 2 3/4% 30-year bond on Tuesday afternoon, with a 1:00pm bidding deadline. This will be the first reopenings for the 10-year and 30-year bonds following the original issues auctions at last month's Refunding.
Dec  8  
Fixed Income Focus

Research Briefing - FOMC meeting preview -- rate hike ahead
We expect the FOMC to take another step in the slow climb back to normalizing monetary policy with a hike in the fed funds rate target range of 25 basis points to 1.25% - 1.50%. The majority of FOMC participants will continue to forecast that inflation will reach its 2% target in the medium-term. The recent uptick in core inflation readings, albeit modest, provides support to their forecasts. Most officials continue to expect that the tight labor market will lead to a moderate cyclical upswing in wages, which in turn will help bolster a pick-up in inflation.
Dec  7  
Federal Reserve

Home Stretch for Tax Reform as Shutdown Battles Loom
Republicans are closing in on their goal of passing a major tax cut. A conference to resolve differences between the House and Senate bills is the next step in the process. We expect a House-Senate compromise to emerge fairly quickly and for President Trump to sign legislation before the end of the year.
Later this week, Congress is expected to pass the first of what will probably be two short-term funding measures necessary to avoid a government shutdown. Unlike the tax bill, Democrats have more leverage in fiscal 2018 spending negotiations. We expect Democrats to demand concessions in exchange for their support.
Dec  5  
Commentaries


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
12:09SMRA Portfolio Survey - Outlook, Duration Slightly Higher
09:472018 Bond market: still room to flatten
09:40Core consumer price pace retreats in November
08:39Quick Take: November CPI Up 0.4%; Core Up 0.1%
08:27Corporate Review - Spreads tighten; IG spreads testing lows
08:25Repo Update - Auction cycle pressure expected to ease soon
08:23Mortgage Applications Quick Take: A decline after holiday noise
08:07Equity Market Technicals
07:23Trading Today - Treasuries lower ahead of CPI and FOMC
12 DecTreasury Market Summary for Tuesday, December 12


Chart of the Day
New SMRA Platform
New SMRA Platform

Wednesday, 13 Dec
MBA Mortgage Applications  08-Dec  -2.3% Vs Prev's +4.7%
  CPI MoM  Nov  +0.4% Vs Prev's +0.1%
  Core CPI MoM  Nov  +0.1% Vs Prev's +0.2%
  FOMC Rate Decision
  Yellen holds press conference following FOMC Meeting
  Fed's Brainard makes opening remarks at awards ceremony
  FOMC Meeting Day 2
  Fannie Mae will announce benchmark bills