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US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul  21  

Fixed Income Focus: Treasuries Bull-Flatten ... Month-End Auction Outlook
he Treasury curve bull-flattened this past week. The front-end of the coupon curve did very little throughout the week, but the long-end rallied. As 10-year and 30-year yields fell by the most since the week ended April 14th, the 2-year/10-year and 2-year/30-year spreads staged the strongest single week flattening moves since the week ended July 8, 2016.

Treasury will hold the month-end cycle of 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Treasury note auctions during the week ahead. We expect foreign demand will be supportive, but more so for the 2-year auction than the 5-year and 7-year auctions
Jul  21  
Fixed Income Focus

No End to the Housing Inventory Squeeze in Sight
Chronically tight inventories of existing homes for sale are making home-buying, including trade-up buying, less affordable. While the construction of new homes may ease some of the pressures, we don't expect many of the other factors limiting for-sale inventory to reverse any time soon. This will limit the upside to residential investment's contribution to GDP growth.
Jul  19  
Commentaries

Research Briefing - Yellen a bit more cautious on inflation outlook
FOMC Chair Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony overall was in line with our expectation. Importantly she revealed a bit more caution on the inflation outlook than she conveyed at the June FOMC meeting and the FOMC detailed in the Monetary Policy Report released last Friday. This lends support to our call that the FOMC will forgo additional rate hikes this.
Jul  12  
Federal Reserve

June Employment Analysis
Key "Take-Aways":
(1) June Payrolls rose 222,000, somewhat stronger than expected
(2) April/May Payrolls revised higher by 47,000
(3) Unemployment Rate inched up to 4.4% from 4.3% in May
(4) Earnings/Hours/Aggregate Payrolls solid
(5) Overall tone of June data upbeat
Jul  7  
Previews/Reviews


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
21 JulTreasury Market Summary for Friday, July 21
21 JulTreasury Market Technicals
21 JulEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - July 24 to July 28
21 JulEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - July 17 to July 21
21 JulFixed Income Focus: Treasuries Bull-Flatten ... Month-End Auction Outlook
21 JulU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
21 JulEquity Market Technicals
21 JulRepo Update - A Relatively Quiet End to the Week
21 JulThe labor force participation rate 55 and over : Some Observations
21 JulFed’s SOMA Average Maturity and Duration (wk 7/19)


Chart of the Day
The labor force participation rate 55 and over : Some Observations
The labor force participation rate 55 and over : Some Observations

Monday, 24 Jul
Markit US Manufacturing PMI  pJul   DUE Vs Prev's 52.0
  Markit US Services PMI  pJul   DUE Vs Prev's 54.2
  Existing Home Sales  Jun   DUE Vs Prev's 5.62M
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Freddie Mac will announce reference bills