A Preview of the Treasury's Quarterly Financing Announcements
Treasury will announce its estimate of borrowing needs for the next two quarters on Monday. Treasury will announce the quarterly refunding on Wednesday. Treasury borrowed quite a bit less in the April-June quarter than we expected, and we have revised down our projections for current quarter borrowing. Even with cuts in coupon auctions, the burden of Treasury financing has shifted away from bills and to coupons. The outlook for Treasury borrowing after 2010 is more uncertain because of an uncertain deficit outlook.
Jul 29
Treasury Market
Commercial Paper Update
This note provides an overview of the recent trends in commercial paper outstanding. There are a couple interesting stories regarding nonfinancial commercial paper, and the divergent behavior of domestic vs foreign financial paper.
Jul 29
Money Markets
Preview Q2 GDP
Q2-10 Real GDP is likely to post a gain of around 2-1/2%, not materially different than in Q1. Given the magnitude of the decline in GDP during the recession, the snapback in growth has to be regarded as subdued by historical standards. Typically, the harder the economy falls the faster it snaps back.
Jul 29
Previews/Reviews
The 7-year Note Auction ... Stats, Facts & Observations
The $29.0 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday afternoon will complete this week's $104 bln package of month-end coupon auctions. The 2-year and 5-year auctions this week were a little mixed. The 5-year action went particularly well, but the 2-year was suffered from a light buyside bid despite generally positive overall results.
Jul 28
Treasury Auction
The Fed's Beige Book - Economic Activity Grows 'On Balance'
The July 28 Beige Book's assessment of economic activity in the 12 districts said, "Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey, although the Cleveland and Kansas City Districts reported that the level of economic activity generally held steady. Among those Districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said that the pace of economic activity had slowed recently." It is the phrase "on balance" that is key here.
Jul 28
Economic Research
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