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Trading Today - Productivity & ULC, Claims, Factory Orders
The Bank of England held policy steady this morning, as expected, and the market reaction was minimal. Now it's on to the more significant ECB statement and press conference this morning, as players look for more clarification on QE purchases. For that, we might have to wait for ECB President Draghi's press conference at 8:30 ET. The global focus on the Draghi press conference could also limit any market response to the early morning Jobless Claims and Productivity figures in the U.S. Factory Orders is the only other release on tap in the U.S.
Mar  5  
Trading Today

SMRA Beige Book Activity Index 1.00; Consistent with Moderate Growth
The SMRA Beige Book Activity Index (BBAI) declined to 1.00 based on our reading of the latest report, a softening in the reading after the 1.13 in the prior report. An index level of 1.00 points to respectable -- if unexceptional -- growth. Our index has seen some short-lived moves up and down in recent years. We think the slightly lower reading of our index was in part due to transitory factors that will give way to more vigorous activity in the coming months. Overall economic conditions remain consistent with the "modest" or "moderate" most often used to describe activity across the twelve Districts.
Mar  4  
Economic Research

Preview February Employment-Bad Weather to Render Below Trend Gain
This Preview provides a sense of how February's weather may impact on the payroll data. It also takes a look at the likely behavior of Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate. Also included are some thoughts on the likely revision to December/January payrolls.
Mar  4  
Previews/Reviews

SMRA Federal Reserve Policy Survey is Now Open
The next SMRA Federal Reserve Policy Survey is open. You will be able to post your responses through 16:00 ET on Friday, March 6. Results will be published on Monday, March 9. The policy survey consists of six short multiple-choice questions and will take only a few moments to complete. We look forward to learning about your outlook for monetary policy. Please note that accessing the SMRA website requires a login/password. If you do not have a login, or need a reminder of your current login, you may contact William Kanto at wkanto@smra.com or 609-683-5237 ext. 115. The survey can be found on the SMRA website in the Federal Reserve section, or click here to go directly to the survey page.
Mar  2  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Payrolls On Tap ... Q4 Delinquency Review
Treasury yields were lower and the curve was flatter this past week. Month-end demand and Fed Chair Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony combined to push yields lower through mid-week.

The overall mortgage delinquency rate declined 17 basis points in the fourth quarter to 5.68%, the lowest since the third quarter of 2007, and the percentage of loans 30 to 59 days past due is near record lows, a reflection of how strict lending standards have become.
Feb  27  
Fixed Income Focus


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
08:59Initial Unemployment Claims--Likely Lifted by the Weather
08:58Analysis--Q4-14 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs- Revision
08:40Repo Update - Pressure Eases Up
08:34Chart of the Day 10-Year Yield at Critical Juncture Ahead of Payrolls
08:34Data Flash! 4Qf Productivity Down 2.2%, ULC Up 4.1%
08:32Data Flash! Initial Claims Up 7K to 320K
08:26Corporate Review - Supply, Spreads, & Activity For Wednesday, Mar. 4
08:17Equity Market Technicals: Prices Still Correcting Ahead of Payrolls
08:01Analysis - February Challenger Job Cut Intentions Down 4.6% Mo/Mo
07:41Trading Today - Productivity & ULC, Claims, Factory Orders


Chart of the Day
 10-Year Yield at Critical Juncture Ahead of Payrolls
10-Year Yield at Critical Juncture Ahead of Payrolls

Thursday, 5 Mar
Challenger Job Cuts YoY +20.9% Vs Prev's +17.6%
  Initial Jobless Claims  28-Feb  320K Vs Prev's 313K
  Continuing Claims  21-Feb  2421K Vs Prev's 2404Kr
  Nonfarm Productivity  4Qf  -2.2% Vs Prev's -1.8%
  Unit Labor Costs  4Qf  +4.1% Vs Prev's +2.7%
  Factory Orders  Jan  EST -0.7% Vs Prev's -3.4%
  Treasury will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Treasury will announce a 3-year note, 10-year note, and 30-year bond auction
  Fed's Williams speaks on the economic outlook in Honolulu