Trading Today - MBA, JOLTS, Consumer Credit
Today's calendar calendar will be light. The weekly MBA figures were already released, and will be followed by the mid-morning JOLTS Job Openings Report and the late afternoon release of Consumer Credit.
FOMC Meeting Preview for Dec. 13-14: Little Doubt on Rate Hike
* Statement at 14:00 ET on Wednesday will be accompanied by an update to the SEP. Chair Yellen's press briefing scheduled for 14:30 ET.
* Little doubt of a 25 basis point hike in fed funds rate.
* Board of Governors should match hike for discount rate and IOER.
* Could tweak forward guidance, but still for gradual approach to monetary policy.
Fed Monetary Policy Survey - What Next?
SMRA surveyed our readers about the outlook for monetary policy with seven brief questions. The survey took place during the period of Monday, November 28 through Friday, December 2. After another the "close call" to keep rates on hold at the November 1-2 meeting, expectations are lined up for a hike in the fed funds target rate range from 0.25%-0.50% to 0.50%-0.75%. At this writing it is almost unimaginable that the FOMC will not raise the rate barring a significant exogenous event with profound implications for the US economy.
Fixed Income Focus: Flagging Buyside Auction Demand
Treasury yields were mixed this past week. A quiet start gave way to heavy selling on surging oil prices, supply concerns, and technicals, but support finally held around 2.50% on the 10-year, and the market was able to rebound on a somewhat weaker than expected Nonfarm Payrolls release.
November was an historically ugly month for Treasuries, which resulted in very weak overall buyside demand for the nominal Treasury coupon auctions.
Fixed Income Focus
US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.