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US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
May  26  

Fed Balance Sheet Normalization = Normalization of Term Premium
When the Fed reduces the amount of Treasury debt it reinvests, the Treasury will have to increase its borrowing from the public by an equivalent amount, and the average maturity of debt outstanding will rise. The 10-year Treasury note term premium, which has been greatly compressed by the Fed's Treasury purchases, should normalize to moderately higher levels as the Fed normalizes the size of its balance sheet and short-term interest rates.
May  23  
Commentaries

Research Briefing on 'Fed's Path to Balance Sheet Normalization'
The FOMC has a number of options when it comes to normalizing its balance sheet from the $4.25 trillion at present to a likely end balance of something above $2 trillion at conclusion of the process. Policymakers have indicated that the process will be announced well in advance of the start of any change in reinvestment policy, and is expected to involve gradual reductions that will not disrupt markets. To view the PDF, click here.
May  18  
Federal Reserve

China's Holdings of Treasuries Jump $27.9 Billion in March
Key Takeaways:
--Foreign investors increased their holdings of Treasuries by $67.3 billion, with China accounting for $27.9 billion of the increase.
--The TIC transactions data showed foreign investors selling $1.1 billion of agency debt/MBS in March, the weakest participation since April 2014.
May  16  
Commentaries

Treasury Prepares for SOMA Redemptions; Ultra-Longs Need More Review
Key Takeaways:
--The Treasury announced a $62.0 billion refunding, as expected.
--Ultra-long bonds are still under review. Dealers seemed lukewarm to the idea, but suggested Treasury might consider a 50-year zero-coupon bond.
--Dealers recommended that Treasury hold higher cash balances, but it's a moot point while the debt limit is binding.
--When the Fed stops reinvesting its maturing Treasury holdings, Treasury will increase issuance across the curve. Initially, Treasury might concentrate the issuance at the front end of the curve.
May  3  
Treasury Market


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
26 MayWEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY - WEEK OF MAY 26, 2017
26 MayTreasury Market Summary for Friday, May 26
26 MayEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - May 29 to June 2
26 MayEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - May 22 to May 26
26 MayU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
26 MayAnalysis - Final May U-M Consumer Sentiment Index 97.1
26 MayAnalysis April Durable Goods—Small decline following 4 consecutive gains
26 MayReview--Q1 GDP second estimate
26 MayQuick Take: April Durable Goods Down 0.7%
26 MayRepo Update - GC Opens High Prior to Long Weekend


Chart of the Day
Market Holiday Calendars - Remainder of 2017
Market Holiday Calendars - Remainder of 2017

Monday, 29 May