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Global Equity Perspective: US Equities Show the Best Posture Ahead of FOMC
Since the May highs, it has been our view that the benchmark S&P 500 is poised to trace the most prolonged corrective pattern since the September '12 through November '12 timeframe. To this point, the index has met this expectation, and after satisfying a number of key measured counts produced during the early stages of the post-05/22 down-cycle down to a confluence of support levels in the 1600 area during the first week of June, the S&P 500 appears content in its current range ahead of this week's highly anticipated meeting. Although we see a higher risk of the S&P 500 finally satisfying AT LEAST a 5% correction from the May 21st close before the next sustained leg higher takes hold, a continued lack of selling interest by the market below the 1600 area will offer the bearish case very little traction.
Jun 17 Technicals

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jun 14

Fixed Income Focus: Waiting On FOMC ... Record TIC Treasury Decline
Treasury 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields reached their highest levels since early April 2012, and the 5-year yield the highest since March 2012 early this past week before the market steadied. The wait is on now for Wednesday's FOMC decision.

Foreign investors were sellers of a record $54.5 billion Treasuries in April. Both official and private investors were significant sellers. The selling of Treasuries was broad-based regionally. They were also buyers of $23.0 billion of agency debt and MBS, sellers of $4.5 billion of corporate bonds, and buyers of $11.2 billion of corporate stocks.
Jun 14 Fixed Income Focus

Thursday Fed Reports on SOMA, the Balance Sheet, and Money Supply
On Thursdays at 16:30 ET, the Federal Reserve releases a variety of data on the System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings, reserve balances at the Fed, and the money supply. Our calculation for the average maturity in months for the SOMA holdings in the week ended June 12 was 125.6, little changed from 125.4 in the prior week. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet rose $14.7 billion. The change was mainly in Treasurys (+$12.3 billion) and "other" Federal Reserve assets (+$2.2 billion). In the money supply data for the week ended June 3, M1 increased $85.0 billion. M2 was up $21.6 billion. Non-M1 M2 fell $63.4 billion. For details, see our updates on June 13.
Jun 13 Federal Reserve

Video: FOMC Meeting Preview 6-12
In this video, Terry Sheehan discusses her expectations for next week's FOMC meeting.
Jun 12 Videos