SMR Weekly US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jul 2
Economic Research
The Day in Words & Numbers for Monday - Fed Speakers, Economic Data & More
Monday, July 6, marks the return from a three-day weekend and the start of a fairly quiet week for economic data and public appearances. The only item on the calendar is the ISM nonmanufacturing index.
Jul 2
Economic Research
June Employment Analysis-Still "Less Bad"
The underlying story remains a picture that is becoming "Less Bad" over time. This is ultimately a precondition for stabilization. How Much Less Bad? Perhaps a good way of looking at these data is taking the average May/June payroll readings and comparing this average decline of 395,000, with the average 645,000 monthly decline over the prior 6 months.
Jul 2
Previews/Reviews
Philadelphia Fed Data Cycle Analysis: U.S. Economy Back Into The Rough In 2010?
We have spotted a possible dealbreaker for the U.S. economic recovery. If confirmed, the federal funds rate could remain near zero for truly an extended period.
Jun 30
Federal Reserve Research
UK GDP Saw Record Fall - But Is Today The Last Day Of The Recession?
UK Q1 GDP saw the largest quarterly decline since Michael Jackson's birth in 1958. The decline in GDP appears to have been amplified as companies have run down stocks at record levels. However, destocking appears to be slowing while forward looking indicators appear significantly stronger. Indeed, growth looks increasingly likely to turn positive from Q3. Given we have come to the last day of Q2, today could then also technically mark the last day of the recession.
Jun 30
UK GDP
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Thursday, 2 Jul
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Nonfarm Payrolls
Jun
-467K
Vs Prev's -322Kr
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Unemployment Rate
Jun
9.5%
Vs Prev's 9.4%
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Mfg Payrolls
Jun
-136K
Vs Prev's -156K
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Average Hourly Earnings
Jun
0.0%
Vs Prev's +0.1%
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Private Workweek
Jun
33.0
Vs Prev's 33.1
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Initial Claims
wk 06/27
614K
Vs Prev's 630Kr
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Factory Orders
May
+1.2%
Vs Prev's +0.5%r
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Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bills.
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Treasury will announce 3- and 10-year notes, 30-year bonds, and 10-year TIPS.
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Trade Balance
May
-$556m
Vs Prev's -$282m
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BoJ Report on Currency & Monetary Control
H109
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Korea Trade Balance (nsa)
Jun
US$7400m
Vs Prev's US$5060m
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Korea FX Reserves
Jun
US$231.7b
Vs Prev's US$226.7b
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Singapore PMI
Jun
51.1
Vs Prev's 51.2
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Hong Kong Retail Sales Volume (YoY)
May
-6.4%
Vs Prev's -5.4%
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ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet explains rate decision at press conference, in Luxembourg.
Jul
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EMU PPI (%mom/yoy)
May
-0.2/-5.8
Vs Prev's -0.9/-4.6
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EMU Unemployment Rate (%)
May
9.5
Vs Prev's 9.3
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ECB announce interest rate decision
Jul
DUE Vs Prev's 1.00%
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Wholesale Sales (real, mom sa/ yoy nsa)
Apr
DUE Vs Prev's 1.2/2.2
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BoE Credit Conditions Survey
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IDS Pay Review Report
May
2%
Vs Prev's 3%
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DMO Gilt Auction (Stg2.5bln 4.25% 2039 Gilt)
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CIPS Construction PMI
Jun
44.5
Vs Prev's 45.9
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BoE's Besley speaks in London
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OAT Auctions (E6-7bln New 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT & 3.25% Apr 2016 OAT)
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Government Deficit/GDP (%ytd)
Q1
9.30
Vs Prev's 2.71
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Unemployment mom net('000s)
Jun
-55.3
Vs Prev's -24.7
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Unemployment (%mom/yoy)
Jun
-1.53/49.13
Vs Prev's -0.68/53.81
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Bono Auction (E3.5-4.5bln New Oct 2014 Bono)
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Sweden's Riksbank rate decision
April
0.25%
Vs Prev's 0.50%
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