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US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
May  29  

Fixed Income Focus: Payrolls On Tap...Good Month-End Buyside Demand
Bonds led a solid bull flattening move this past week. The long-end was aided by month-end demand, while supply pressures helped to limit the upside for the front-end.

This past week's month-end cycle of 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year coupon auctions were less mixed than usual, as all three went well. The bidding details were very strong though, with another especially good Indirect takedown, and an improved Direct bidder takedown for a change.
May  29  
Fixed Income Focus

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Outlook as of May 29, 2015
Our update to the Monetary Policy Outlook reflects our expectation that the time for policy normalization is closer, but probably the first hike in the fed funds rate target will not occur until the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. The Committee has good evidence that the labor market has returned to health -- or nearly so -- while the data for inflation and inflation expectations is less certain. On balance, the FOMC will probably prefer to wait a few months to ensure that the numbers are in place for both sides of the dual mandate.To view the PDF of the outlook, click here: May 29, 2015 Monetary Policy Outlook
May  29  
Federal Reserve

What Did We Learn From The April State Payroll Data?
We continue to look closely at the state payroll data to better understand the national employment data. In this note we detail some of the key observations from the April state payroll data, and draw inferences for the May national payroll data.
May  27  
Economic Research

Debt Limit Update: Cash Crunch Expected in Mid to Late November
Key Takeaways:
--Based on our current projections, Treasury would run short of cash to pay its obligations in the second half of November.
--April tax receipts were stronger than expected, which -- all else equal -- would push back the Treasury's "drop dead date."
--On the other hand, Treasury issued more non-marketable debt to trust funds in March and April than we expected. That debt also counts against the debt limit.
--The Treasury's new policy of holding more cash implies that Treasury will exhaust its special measures to create borrowing authority much sooner than it would run out of cash.
--Once Treasury exhausts its extraordinary measures, it will be effectively limited to rolling over maturing debt, which could be disruptive for the coupon auction schedule in particular.
--As of April 30, Treasury had used close to $130.0 billion of its extraordinary measures.
May  22  
Treasury Market


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
00:23WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY - WEEK OF MAY 29, 2015
29 MayTechnical Intermarket Outlook
29 MayTreasury Market Summary For Friday, May 29
29 MayEconomic Week Ahead Chartbook - June 1 to June 5
29 MayEconomic Week in Review Chartbook - May 25 to May 29
29 MayFixed Income Focus: Payrolls On Tap...Good Month-End Buyside Demand
29 MayComing Soon! SMRA Federal Reserve Policy Survey
29 MayAnalysis: Final May Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index 90.7
29 MayU.S. Monthly Economic Snapshot Table
29 MayFed's SOMA Average Maturity and Duration (wk 05/27)


Chart of the Day
 Is the May Flattening Cycle Nearing Exhaustion?
Is the May Flattening Cycle Nearing Exhaustion?

Monday, 1 Jun
Personal Income  Apr  EST +0.2% Vs Prev's 0.0%
  Personal Consumption Expenditures  Apr  EST +0.2% Vs Prev's +0.4%
  Markit US Manufacturing PMI  fMay 
  Construction Spending MoM  Apr  EST +0.8% Vs Prev's -0.6%
  ISM Manufacturing Index  May  EST 52.0 Vs Prev's 51.5
  Treasury will announce a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 3-month and 6-month bill auction
  Freddie Mac will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions