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The FOMC’s Discussion of the Normalization Process
At the July 29/30 FOMC meeting the discussion of the normalization process evolved further. President Eric Rosengren characterized the discussion as being "almost at the point (of agreement)". We suspect at today's meeting the Committee will be presented with a menu of two or three options, of which they will select one. From the Minutes of the July 29/30 Meeting there were a number of points of agreement. We suspect that the selected approach will take account of these key points.
Sep  16  
Federal Reserve Research

FOMC Preview for Sept. 16-17 - Change in Forward Guidance Not a Certainty
Key Points:
* A seventh $10 billion cut in the size of the asset purchase program is a virtual certainty.
* Committee likely -- but not guaranteed -- to adjust the language of the forward guidance away from the "considerable time".
* Assessment of economy likely to be cautiously upbeat; watchful of geopolitical risks.
* Two vacancies on the Board means 17 participants to contribute to the Summary of Economic Projections, not full 19.
Sep  16  
Federal Reserve

Trading Today - PPI, TIC ... Waiting On FOMC
August PPI figures will be released first thing this morning, and the TIC data for July will be released late this afternoon, but neither should be particularly market moving as trading today will be dominated by positioning in front of tomorrow's FOMC decision.
Sep  16  
Trading Today

Today Is SMR Survey Day!
SMR will conduct the weekly survey of SMR money managers today. Responses can be entered at the link here. Summary data will be proprietary to SMR clients. The results will be presented on Wednesday. Thank you for your participation!
Sep  16  
Portfolio Manager Survey

Fixed Income Focus: Yield Rise Continues Despite Decent Auction Demand
Treasury yields were hit hard across the curve this past week, with yields up between 12 and 14 basis points from the 3-year on out in late Friday morning trading.

The week's coupon actions went quite well overall. Both the 3-year and 10-year auction results were fairly vanilla, but the bond auction found very strong demand to cap the week.
Sep  16  
Fixed Income Focus

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
17:19Treasury Market Summary For Tuesday, September 16
17:11Trading Tomorrow - FOMC! Plus MBA, CPI, Current Account, NAHB
16:10Foreign Investors Holdings Dip $0.438 Bln in US Bond Market
15:28Treasury Market Technicals
13:04The FOMC’s Discussion of the Normalization Process
11:4752-Week Bidding Details ... Another Weak Direct Bid
11:3652-Week Bill Auction ... Weak
11:354-Week Bill Auction Results... Weak Indirects
11:05NY Fed Open Market Desk Buys $2.140 Billion in Treasury Coupons
10:5352-Week Treasury Bill Auction --> Review And Preview

Chart of the Day
What is the FOMC Watching?<br>Spending, Housing Market
What is the FOMC Watching?
Spending, Housing Market

Tuesday, 16 Sep
PPI Final Demand MoM  Aug  0.0% Vs Prev's +0.1%
  PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM  Aug  +0.1% Vs Prev's +0.2%
  Fed's Hunter Speaks on Community Banking to Sentate Committee
  The NY Fed's Open Market Desk will conduct an outright purchase operation in the 11/15/2021 through 08/15/2024 maturity range
  Treasury will hold a 4-week bill auction
  Treasury will hold a 52-week bill auction
  Total Net TIC Flows  Jul   DUE Vs Prev's -$153.5B
  Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting