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SMRA-Oxford Economics 2018 calendars now available
Our 2018 calendars, showing key dates for economic releases, Federal Reserve events and fixed income auctions, have arrived.
Jan  18  

Shutdown risk increases as deadline approaches
Congress hopes to pass its fourth stop-gap spending measure before the end of the week to prevent a government shutdown. The measure faces stiff opposition, mainly from conservatives in the House and Senate Democrats. The odds of a shutdown have increased to 50%. If a shutdown does occur, about 850,000 federal workers would be furloughed. A shutdown lasting a week would shave 0.1pp from GDP growth. Congress may avert a shutdown this weekend, but the stakes only get higher from here. Deadlines for DACA and the debt limit will bear down in early March.
Jan  18  

Research Briefing - Fed in 2018 - Voters rotate while Board is reshaped
Changes at the top of the Fed have started to reshape the outlook for US monetary policy. The Board of Governors will soon have an almost entirely new lineup, and two District Banks recently gained new Presidents. The new Governors could swing more hawkish in their views of monetary policy and favor a roll back of some of the post-financial crisis regulation. Trump's nomination of Powell as Chair suggested that a sharp swing to the hawkish side of the spectrum might not be severe, but recent speculation about other nominations for Governors' seats may change that inference
Jan  18  
Federal Reserve

Fixed Income Focus: Supply & Demand Questions Emerge
s of late Friday afternoon, Treasury yields are 3.8 to 7.5 bps higher on the week, with the 10-year yield the week's worst performer, and the front-end seeing the least of the week's hit. Treasuries were hit by a wave of bear-steepening flows through mid-week, and while bonds led a rebound over the second half of the week it wasn't enough to fully erase the damage.

Increased budget deficits due to tax cuts and increased spending will boost Treasury debt issuance sharply in 2018. We project net marketable borrowing of $885 billion, a 66% increase from $534 billion in 2017 - the largest amount of net new Treasury supply since 2012. Our forecast for the year-end 10-year Treasury note yield is around 2.85%, but the risks also depend on how the bond term premium, which has been exceptionally low, evolves. In particular, the inflation term premium is of key importance since it has been compressed by ongoing sluggish inflation readings and low to declining inflation expectations.
Jan  16  
Fixed Income Focus

US Economic Chartbooks
Please see our Economic Week Ahead Chartbook for a discussion of next week's economic releases provided in a visually friendly format that includes graphs, brief descriptions of SMR's forecasts, and links to detailed data previews. If you missed anything from last week, see our Economic Week in Review Chartbook for a look back at the releases with links to full analyses.
Jan  12  

Latest Research HERE for Research Window
18:36Weekly Dealer Data: Modest position increase led by T-bills, GSE
16:45Treasury Market Summary for Thursday, January 18
16:04Trading Tomorrow - University of Michigan, Fed speakers
15:46SMRA-Oxford Economics 2018 calendars now available
13:2310-year TIPS auction gets record buyside demand
13:0510-Year TIPS auction finds gangbuster demand
11:4410-year TIPS auction preview...stats, facts & observations
11:03Treasury announces next week's auction details
09:51Analysis - Initial Jobless Claims Down 41,000 to 220,000 in Jan. 13 Week
09:45December housing starts -- not as weak as the headline

Chart of the Day
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New SMRA Platform

Thursday, 18 Jan
Initial Jobless Claims  13-Jan  220k Vs Prev's 261K
  Continuing Claims  06-Jan  1952k Vs Prev's 1876Kr
  Housing Starts  Dec  1192K Vs Prev's 1299Kr
  Building Permits  Dec  1302K Vs Prev's 1303Kr
  Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook  Jan  22.2 Vs Prev's 27.9r
  Treasury will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Treasury will announce 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year note auctions
  Treasury will announce a 2-year FRN auction
  Treasury will hold a 10-year TIPS auction
  Fannie Mae may announce benchmark notes