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Trading Today - Claims, Philly Fed, LEI, 30-Yr TIPS ... George
The U.S. calendar today opens with the release of the October Philly Fed Index and the weekly Jobless Claims figures. The September Leading Economic Index will be released mid-morning, and Fed President George will also speak during the morning. Treasury will hold a 30-year TIPS reopening auction in the afternoon. Also, the September Treasury Budget Statement is due out any day now.
Oct  19  
Trading Today

SMRA Beige Book Activity Index held at 1.00 in October report
The SMRA Beige Book Activity Index (BBAI) held at 1.00, the same reading as the prior two Beige Books. The steady index level came despite some impacts from the series of hurricanes that battered states along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. The Beige Book said, "The Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts reported major disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in some areas and sectors, including transportation, energy, and agriculture." However, overall economic conditions kept regional economies on a path of modest to moderate growth. Regional economies appear to be resilient to short-term shocks.
Oct  18  
Federal Reserve

Pick a Study, Any Study; Health Care Back in the Mix
The GOP tax plan should clear another hurdle this week with passage of a budget resolution in the Senate. The Administration's effort to use a controversial study to sell a corporate tax cut as a boon to all workers may be a preview of things to come. Meanwhile, President Trump's decision to cut off payments to health insurers adds another variable to this fall's policy debates and may increase the risk of a government shutdown.
Oct  18  
Commentaries

Research Briefing - Race for next Fed Chair becomes musical chairs
We have updated our odds for the next Fed Chair following press reports that President Trump was very impressed with candidate John Taylor after meeting with him. We have raised Taylor's odds to 20% (previously we saw just 5% probability). Concurrently we have sharply lowered Kevin Warsh's odds to 15% (previously he was the leading contender at 40%). Warsh's standing has diminished following sharp attacks by a wide array of notably economists including Scott Sumner, Tim Duy and Paul Krugman regarding his erroneous views that asset purchases will lead to high inflation and fiscal austerity in the aftermath of the financial crisis was the right macroeconomic prescription.
Oct  17  
Federal Reserve

Research Briefing - Stores and shippers are hiring -- will consumers spend?
We expect consumers to be generous spenders this holiday season, as we forecast holiday sales to rise a solid 3.8% this year. A strong labor market, rebounding wage growth, ebullient consumer sentiment, and a record-high equity market provide the positive underpinnings. Adding further support, there will be 31 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas -- the most since 32 in 2012. However, it isn't clear if brick-and-mortar outlets are anticipating a longer and more active holiday period. More clear, on-line retailers are likely to reap more of the activity even if it is at the expense of traditional stores. Transportation companies are gearing up for a spike in warehouses to home deliveries.
Oct  17  
Economic Research


Latest Research HERE for Research Window
16:42Treasury Market Summary for Wednesday, October 18
16:29Weekly Dealer Data: Treasury Holdings Back Up
16:11Trading Tomorrow - Existing Home Sales ... Mester, Yellen
15:47Treasury Market Technicals
13:1830-Year TIPS Bidding Details ... Very Strong Indirect Bid
13:0430-Year TIPS Auction Results ... Solid
11:5730-Year TIPS Auction Preview ... Stats, Facts & Observations
11:01Treasury Announces Bill, Note & FRN Auction Details
10:11Quick Take: Sept. Leading Economic Index down 0.2% on claims, permits
09:32Analysis - Initial Jobless Claims Down 22,000 to 222,000 in Oct. 14 Week


Thursday, 19 Oct
Initial Jobless Claims  14-Oct  222K Vs Prev's 244Kr
  Continuing Claims  07-Oct  1888K Vs Prev's 1904Kr
  Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook  Oct  27.9 Vs Prev's 23.8
  Fed's George speaks in Oklahoma
  Leading Index  Sep  -0.2% Vs Prev's +0.4%
  Treasury will announce 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
  Treasury will announce a 2-year FRN reopening
  Treasury will announce 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions
  Treasury will hold a 30-year TIPS reopening
  Monthly Budget Statement  Sep  EST +$5.0B Vs Prev's +$33.4B
  Home Loan may announce global bonds